ScoreProb
3. Liga Germany Round 13 2026

Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln

Waldhof Mannheim Home · Elo 1,510
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fortuna Köln Away · Elo 1,627
Carl-Benz Stadion, Mannheim Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Waldhof Mannheim win
Waldhof Mannheim winPick
49.9%
Draw
21.5%
Fortuna Köln win
28.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.8%
Under 2.542.2%

How much we know

Waldhof Mannheim history66 matches
Fortuna Köln history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Waldhof Mannheim are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fortuna Köln are rated 118 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,627 against 1,510. On rating alone Fortuna Köln would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Fortuna Köln score more

    1.44 goals a game over 66 matches for Waldhof Mannheim, against 1.93 over 61 for Fortuna Köln.

  • Fortuna Köln concede fewer

    Waldhof Mannheim concede 1.64 a game, Fortuna Köln 1.07.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Waldhof Mannheim matches, against 59% for Fortuna Köln. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Waldhof Mannheim
Fortuna Köln
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1509.5
ELO
1627.3
66
ELO · Matches
61
1509.5
Current Team ELO
1627.3
1627.3
Current Opponent ELO
1509.5
-117.8
Current ELO Difference
117.8
0.34
Expected score
0.66
66
History Matches
61
0.01
Residual Mean
0.11
50.47
Overperformance
58.07
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.30
Goals for per game
1.90
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.56
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
61
1.33
PPG
1.84
36.4%
Win rate
50.8%
24.2%
Draw rate
31.1%
39.4%
Loss rate
18.0%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.0%
59.1%
Over 2.5 rate
59.0%
39.4%
Over 3.5 rate
42.6%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
29
1.69
PPG
1.48
46.9%
Win rate
41.4%
28.1%
Draw rate
24.1%
25.0%
Loss rate
34.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
65.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
40.6%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
32
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.93
71.2%
Scoring rate
78.7%
59.1%
BTTS rate
47.5%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.52
71.9%
Scoring rate
69.0%
56.3%
BTTS rate
41.4%
2.50
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
66
History Matches
61
1.44
Goals Mean
1.93
1.28
Goals Std
1.42
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
78.7%
47.0%
Scored 2+ rate
60.7%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
36.1%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.64
Goals against per game
1.07
83.3%
Conceding rate
59.0%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.28
75.0%
Conceding rate
62.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
61
1.64
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.24
Conceded Std
1.16
47.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.1%
21.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.5%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.0%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.0%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
61
0.98
Result entropy
0.92
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.91
1.84
Stability score
7.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
59
20
Lead Matches
23
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.91
26
Trailing Matches
14
23.1%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.88
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
28
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.55
Portability PPG Range
0.91
66.50
Portability Score
54.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-117.8
PPG-0.50
GF-0.50
GA0.57
PPG1.50
PPG0.20
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate7.5%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.50
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate15.8%
Conceded 3+ rate9.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.67
History Matches5
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score-5.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.36
Portability Score11.81
Rest days-6.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-117.8
Current Opponent ELO117.8
Current ELO Difference-235.5
Expected score-0.33
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Waldhof Mannheim

L
FC Saarbrücken2–1Waldhof Mannheim1 Nov · away
Pick: FC Saarbrücken 53% · hit
W
Waldhof Mannheim4–1Hoffenheim II25 Oct · home
Pick: Waldhof Mannheim 50% · hit
L
Würzburger Kickers2–0Waldhof Mannheim17 Oct · away
Pick: Würzburger Kickers 61% · hit
L
Waldhof Mannheim0–3FC Ingolstadt 0414 Oct · home
Pick: Waldhof Mannheim 46% · missed
L
Havelse3–2Waldhof Mannheim30 Aug · away
Pick: Waldhof Mannheim 49% · missed

Fortuna Köln

L
Fortuna Köln1–2Würzburger Kickers31 Oct · home
Pick: Würzburger Kickers 49% · hit
L
Preußen Münster1–0Fortuna Köln25 Oct · away
Pick: Preußen Münster 51% · hit
L
Fortuna Köln0–1Stuttgart II16 Oct · home
Pick: Fortuna Köln 52% · missed
L
Rot-Weiß Essen2–0Fortuna Köln13 Oct · away
Pick: Rot-Weiß Essen 46% · hit
W
Verl1–2Fortuna Köln29 Aug · away
Pick: Fortuna Köln 42% · hit

About this match

Waldhof Mannheim and Fortuna Köln meet in 3. Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Carl-Benz Stadion, Mannheim. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Waldhof Mannheim win 49.9%, draw 21.5%, Fortuna Köln win 28.6%. The pick is Waldhof Mannheim win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.8%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.