ScoreProb
Meistriliiga Estonia Round 36 2026

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme

FC Levadia Tallinn Home · Elo 1,701
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kalju Nomme Away · Elo 1,637
A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Levadia Tallinn win
FC Levadia Tallinn winPick
47.9%
Draw
22.2%
Kalju Nomme win
29.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.1%
No43.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%

How much we know

FC Levadia Tallinn history82 matches
Kalju Nomme history87 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Levadia Tallinn are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Levadia Tallinn are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,701 against 1,637. On rating alone FC Levadia Tallinn would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • FC Levadia Tallinn score more

    2.30 goals a game over 82 matches for FC Levadia Tallinn, against 2.03 over 87 for Kalju Nomme.

  • Defences are close

    FC Levadia Tallinn concede 1.01 a game, Kalju Nomme 0.99.

  • FC Levadia Tallinn games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of FC Levadia Tallinn matches, against 53% for Kalju Nomme. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Levadia Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1701.3
ELO
1636.9
82
ELO · Matches
87
1701.3
Current Team ELO
1636.9
1636.9
Current Opponent ELO
1701.3
64.42
Current ELO Difference
-64.42
0.59
Expected score
0.41
82
History Matches
87
0.12
Residual Mean
0.08
59.52
Overperformance
56.37
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
2.40
Goals for per game
4.40
0.60
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
2.00
2.80
Goals for per game
2.90
0.70
Goals against per game
1.10
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.90
1.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
3.33
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.84
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
87
2.02
PPG
1.89
62.2%
Win rate
56.3%
15.9%
Draw rate
19.5%
22.0%
Loss rate
24.1%
84.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
69.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
42.7%
Over 3.5 rate
32.2%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
43
2.10
PPG
1.91
65.0%
Win rate
58.1%
15.0%
Draw rate
16.3%
20.0%
Loss rate
25.6%
82.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.8%
72.5%
Over 2.5 rate
51.2%
47.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.2%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.57
40
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.30
Goals for per game
2.03
85.4%
Scoring rate
83.9%
56.1%
BTTS rate
50.6%
2.45
Goals for per game
2.05
87.5%
Scoring rate
79.1%
47.5%
BTTS rate
39.5%
2.65
Goals for per game
1.79
100.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
69.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
82
History Matches
87
2.30
Goals Mean
2.03
1.81
Goals Std
1.94
85.4%
Scored 1+ rate
83.9%
63.4%
Scored 2+ rate
51.7%
40.2%
Scored 3+ rate
27.6%
2.45
Venue Goals Mean
2.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.01
Goals against per game
0.99
68.3%
Conceding rate
63.2%
0.88
Goals against per game
0.98
55.0%
Conceding rate
53.5%
0.78
Goals against per game
0.79
69.6%
Conceding rate
62.5%
82
History Matches
87
1.01
Conceded Mean
0.99
0.89
Conceded Std
1.01
26.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.3%
4.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.9%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
0.98
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.5%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.5%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
87
0.84
Result entropy
0.90
2.27
Goal Difference Std
2.29
16.24
Stability score
10.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
86
46
Lead Matches
32
87.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.6%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.94
13
Trailing Matches
19
53.8%
Non-loss rate
42.1%
38.5%
Trailing Win Rate
31.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
1.20
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.15
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.77
Rest days
76.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
12
2.14
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
55
Normal Rest History Matches
51
2.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
19
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
24
2.43
PPG
1.83
73.9%
Win rate
54.2%
21.7%
Draw rate
20.8%
4.3%
Loss rate
25.0%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
73.9%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
23
Current Competition Matches
24
2.43
Current Competition PPG
1.83
1.87
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
9
Competition Season Count
9
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.33
2.18
Portability PPG Range
1.08
40.78
Portability Score
60.32
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
87
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO64.42
PPG0.14
GF0.27
GA0.02
PPG0.60
PPG0.19
PPG-0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate1.5%
Scored 2+ rate11.7%
Scored 3+ rate12.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.55
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate1.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.81
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score5.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.50
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate11.7%
Trailing Win Rate6.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.87
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.40
Portability PPG Range1.10
Portability Score-19.54
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO64.42
Current Opponent ELO-64.42
Current ELO Difference128.8
Expected score0.18
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Levadia Tallinn

W
Nõmme United3–4FC Levadia Tallinn31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Levadia Tallinn 61% · hit
W
FC Levadia Tallinn2–1Tammeka27 Oct · home
Pick: FC Levadia Tallinn 67% · hit
W
FC Levadia Tallinn2–1Laagri24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Levadia Tallinn 72% · hit
W
Kuressaare0–2FC Levadia Tallinn18 Oct · away
Pick: FC Levadia Tallinn 72% · hit
W
Flora Tallinn1–3FC Levadia Tallinn15 Oct · away
Pick: FC Levadia Tallinn 49% · hit

Kalju Nomme

W
Kalju Nomme1–0Kuressaare1 Nov · home
Pick: Kalju Nomme 72% · hit
W
Paide0–2Kalju Nomme28 Oct · away
Pick: Paide 37% · missed
W
Kalju Nomme2–1Flora Tallinn25 Oct · home
Pick: Kalju Nomme 39% · hit
L
Nõmme United3–0Kalju Nomme17 Oct · away
Pick: Kalju Nomme 55% · missed
D
Vaprus2–2Kalju Nomme13 Oct · away
Pick: Kalju Nomme 54% · missed

About this match

FC Levadia Tallinn and Kalju Nomme meet in Meistriliiga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. The match is played at A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Levadia Tallinn win 47.9%, draw 22.2%, Kalju Nomme win 29.9%. The pick is FC Levadia Tallinn win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.4%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.