ScoreProb
Meistriliiga Estonia Round 36 2026

Trans Narva vs Laagri

Trans Narva Home · Elo 1,467
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Laagri Away · Elo 1,499
Narva Kalev-Fama staadion Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Laagri win
Trans Narva win
38.8%
Draw
19.9%
Laagri winPick
41.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.9%
No38.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.2%
Under 2.532.8%

How much we know

Trans Narva history82 matches
Laagri history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Laagri are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Laagri are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,499 against 1,467. On rating alone Laagri would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Laagri score more

    1.63 goals a game over 82 matches for Trans Narva, against 1.92 over 75 for Laagri.

  • Defences are close

    Trans Narva concede 1.57 a game, Laagri 1.69.

  • Laagri games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Trans Narva matches, against 73% for Laagri. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Trans Narva
Laagri
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1466.6
ELO
1499.0
82
ELO · Matches
75
1466.6
Current Team ELO
1499.0
1499.0
Current Opponent ELO
1466.6
-32.33
Current ELO Difference
32.33
0.45
Expected score
0.55
82
History Matches
75
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.73
Overperformance
50.88
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.50
1.50
Goals for per game
2.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
2.38
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.29
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
3.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.88
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
75
1.30
PPG
1.25
37.8%
Win rate
37.3%
17.1%
Draw rate
13.3%
45.1%
Loss rate
49.3%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
62.2%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.7%
2.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
33
1.49
PPG
0.85
44.2%
Win rate
24.2%
16.3%
Draw rate
12.1%
39.5%
Loss rate
63.6%
86.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
67.4%
Over 2.5 rate
75.8%
44.2%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
2.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
43
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.63
Goals for per game
1.92
65.9%
Scoring rate
77.3%
47.6%
BTTS rate
57.3%
2.09
Goals for per game
1.18
81.4%
Scoring rate
66.7%
60.5%
BTTS rate
60.6%
0.75
Goals for per game
1.42
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
41.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
82
History Matches
75
1.63
Goals Mean
1.92
2.00
Goals Std
3.13
65.9%
Scored 1+ rate
77.3%
36.6%
Scored 2+ rate
48.0%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
21.3%
2.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.57
Goals against per game
1.69
73.2%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.49
Goals against per game
2.21
74.4%
Conceding rate
93.9%
2.29
Goals against per game
1.67
87.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
82
History Matches
75
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.44
Conceded Std
1.32
47.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.3%
20.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.0%
1.49
Venue Conceded Mean
2.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
6.1%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
6.1%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
75
0.94
Result entropy
0.90
2.76
Goal Difference Std
3.76
6.37
Stability score
10.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
74
26
Lead Matches
24
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.86
33
Trailing Matches
29
12.1%
Non-loss rate
13.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
3.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.77
Rest days
76.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
54
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
23
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
24
0.71
PPG
1.17
20.8%
Win rate
37.5%
8.3%
Draw rate
4.2%
70.8%
Loss rate
58.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
24
Current Competition Matches
24
0.71
Current Competition PPG
1.17
-1.54
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.70
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.69
Portability PPG Range
1.00
41.83
Portability Score
54.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-32.33
PPG0.05
GF-0.29
GA-0.12
PPG-0.46
PPG0.64
PPG0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate11.5%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate19.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std-1.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.91
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.72
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches7
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-1.00
Stability score-3.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.33
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.46
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.29
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range0.69
Portability Score-12.43
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO-32.33
Current Opponent ELO32.33
Current ELO Difference-64.66
Expected score-0.09
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Trans Narva

L
Flora Tallinn2–0Trans Narva1 Nov · away
Pick: Flora Tallinn 70% · hit
L
Trans Narva0–1Nõmme United27 Oct · home
Pick: Nõmme United 48% · hit
L
Tammeka5–1Trans Narva23 Oct · away
Pick: Tammeka 56% · hit
L
Paide2–1Trans Narva18 Oct · away
Pick: Paide 69% · hit
L
Trans Narva0–2Tammeka30 Aug · home
Pick: Tammeka 40% · hit

Laagri

L
Tammeka2–1Laagri31 Oct · away
Pick: Tammeka 45% · hit
L
FC Levadia Tallinn2–1Laagri24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Levadia Tallinn 72% · hit
W
Laagri3–1Flora Tallinn21 Oct · home
Pick: Flora Tallinn 51% · missed
W
Laagri2–0Vaprus18 Oct · home
Pick: Laagri 48% · hit
W
Laagri2–0Nõmme United13 Oct · home
Pick: Laagri 48% · hit

About this match

Trans Narva and Laagri meet in Meistriliiga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. The match is played at Narva Kalev-Fama staadion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Trans Narva win 38.8%, draw 19.9%, Laagri win 41.4%. The pick is Laagri win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.2%. Both teams to score: 61.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.