ScoreProb
Meistriliiga Estonia Round 36 2026

Tammeka vs Vaprus

Tammeka Home · Elo 1,535
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vaprus Away · Elo 1,525
Tamme Stadium, Tartu Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tammeka win
Tammeka winPick
47.6%
Draw
19.7%
Vaprus win
32.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.5%
No37.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.9%
Under 2.534.1%

How much we know

Tammeka history71 matches
Vaprus history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tammeka are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,535 against 1,525. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.82 goals a game over 71 matches for Tammeka, against 2.00 over 76 for Vaprus.

  • Vaprus concede fewer

    Tammeka concede 1.85 a game, Vaprus 1.61.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    70% of Tammeka matches, against 70% for Vaprus. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tammeka
Vaprus
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1534.8
ELO
1525.4
71
ELO · Matches
76
1534.8
Current Team ELO
1525.4
1525.4
Current Opponent ELO
1534.8
9.47
Current ELO Difference
-9.47
0.51
Expected score
0.49
71
History Matches
76
0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
52.10
Overperformance
51.35
0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.40
4.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.30
2.90
Goals for per game
2.10
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
5.39
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
6.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
76
1.27
PPG
1.41
39.4%
Win rate
42.1%
8.5%
Draw rate
14.5%
52.1%
Loss rate
43.4%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
70.4%
Over 2.5 rate
69.7%
45.1%
Over 3.5 rate
40.8%
3.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
38
1.51
PPG
1.42
48.6%
Win rate
44.7%
5.7%
Draw rate
7.9%
45.7%
Loss rate
47.4%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
62.9%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
3.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.56
35
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.82
Goals for per game
2.00
74.6%
Scoring rate
77.6%
53.5%
BTTS rate
56.6%
2.20
Goals for per game
1.71
74.3%
Scoring rate
78.9%
45.7%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.35
71.4%
Scoring rate
82.6%
47.6%
BTTS rate
69.6%
71
History Matches
76
1.82
Goals Mean
2.00
2.64
Goals Std
2.38
74.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
39.4%
Scored 2+ rate
44.7%
18.3%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
2.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.85
Goals against per game
1.61
76.1%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.66
68.6%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.91
66.7%
Conceding rate
78.3%
71
History Matches
76
1.85
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.65
Conceded Std
1.44
50.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.7%
29.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.4%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
76
0.83
Result entropy
0.92
3.48
Goal Difference Std
3.13
16.68
Stability score
8.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
76
21
Lead Matches
32
76.2%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.84
29
Trailing Matches
25
6.9%
Non-loss rate
12.0%
3.4%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
1.09
1.01
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.85
Rest days
75.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
30
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
23
1.52
PPG
1.17
47.6%
Win rate
34.8%
9.5%
Draw rate
13.0%
42.9%
Loss rate
52.2%
52.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
21
Current Competition Matches
23
1.52
Current Competition PPG
1.17
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.57
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.49
1.17
Portability PPG Range
1.23
53.85
Portability Score
50.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO9.47
PPG-0.14
GF-0.18
GA0.24
PPG0.35
PPG0.09
PPG1.00
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate4.7%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std3.69
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate2.0%
Conceded 3+ rate7.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.83
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score8.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std3.58
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.23
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.07
Portability Score3.59
Rest days1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO9.47
Current Opponent ELO-9.47
Current ELO Difference18.94
Expected score0.03
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tammeka

W
Tammeka2–1Laagri31 Oct · home
Pick: Tammeka 45% · hit
L
FC Levadia Tallinn2–1Tammeka27 Oct · away
Pick: FC Levadia Tallinn 67% · hit
W
Tammeka5–1Trans Narva23 Oct · home
Pick: Tammeka 56% · hit
L
Flora Tallinn2–0Tammeka18 Oct · away
Pick: Flora Tallinn 57% · hit
L
Paide2–1Tammeka14 Oct · away
Pick: Paide 56% · hit

Vaprus

L
Vaprus0–1Paide31 Oct · home
Pick: Paide 42% · hit
D
Vaprus1–1Kuressaare28 Oct · home
Pick: Vaprus 50% · missed
L
Nõmme United4–2Vaprus23 Oct · away
Pick: Nõmme United 41% · hit
L
Laagri2–0Vaprus18 Oct · away
Pick: Laagri 48% · hit
D
Vaprus2–2Kalju Nomme13 Oct · home
Pick: Kalju Nomme 54% · missed

About this match

Tammeka and Vaprus meet in Meistriliiga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. The match is played at Tamme Stadium, Tartu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tammeka win 47.6%, draw 19.7%, Vaprus win 32.7%. The pick is Tammeka win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.9%. Both teams to score: 62.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.