ScoreProb
Girabola Angola Round 10 2026

FC Luanda vs São Salvador

FC Luanda Home · Elo 1,498
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
São Salvador Away · Elo 1,487
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Luanda win
FC Luanda winPick
38.8%
Draw
36.9%
São Salvador win
24.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes38.7%
No61.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.533.6%
Under 2.566.4%

How much we know

FC Luanda history1 match
São Salvador history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why FC Luanda are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,498 against 1,487. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • São Salvador score far more

    0.00 goals a game over 1 matches for FC Luanda, against 1.04 over 45 for São Salvador.

  • FC Luanda concede fewer

    FC Luanda concede 0.00 a game, São Salvador 1.00.

  • São Salvador games more often go over 2.5 goals

    0% of FC Luanda matches, against 38% for São Salvador. The model puts this match at 34% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Luanda
São Salvador
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.2
ELO
1486.6
1
ELO · Matches
45
1498.2
Current Team ELO
1486.6
1486.6
Current Opponent ELO
1498.2
11.52
Current ELO Difference
-11.52
0.52
Expected score
0.48
1
History Matches
45
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.00
Overperformance
49.45
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
1
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.00
Goals for per game
0.60
0.00
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.50
0.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.00
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
1
Matches
45
1.00
PPG
1.31
0.0%
Win rate
37.8%
100.0%
Draw rate
17.8%
0.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
57.8%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.8%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
21
1.00
PPG
0.71
0.0%
Win rate
19.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
47.6%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
9.5%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.05
1
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.00
Goals for per game
1.04
0.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
42.2%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.62
0.0%
Scoring rate
47.6%
0.0%
BTTS rate
38.1%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1
History Matches
45
0.00
Goals Mean
1.04
—
Goals Std
1.13
0.0%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
28.9%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
73.3%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.19
0.0%
Conceding rate
81.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1
History Matches
45
0.00
Conceded Mean
1.00
—
Conceded Std
0.79
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.2%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.4%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
52.4%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
52.4%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
1
History Matches
45
0.00
Result entropy
0.94
—
Goal Difference Std
1.43
100.0
Stability score
5.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
1
Eligible Matches
42
0
Lead Matches
13
—
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.82
0
Trailing Matches
10
—
Non-loss rate
10.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
22
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
0
Long Rest History Matches
20
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.20
—
Portability PPG Range
0.39
—
Portability Score
71.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
1
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO11.52
PPG-0.31
GF-1.04
GA-1.00
PPG1.00
PPG0.29
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-44
Clean-sheet rate73.3%
Failed-to-score rate60.0%
History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate81.0%
Failed-to-score rate47.6%
History Matches-44
Goals Mean-1.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.60
Scored 2+ rate-0.29
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
History Matches-44
Conceded Mean-1.00
Clean-sheet rate73.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
History Matches-44
Result entropy-0.94
Stability score94.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.99
Eligible Matches-41
Lead Matches-13
Trailing Matches-10
Halftime Coverage Matches-41
First Half Goals For Mean-0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.55
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-22
Long Rest History Matches-20
Current Team ELO11.52
Current Opponent ELO-11.52
Current ELO Difference23.05
Expected score0.03
History Matches-44
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Luanda

L
1º de Maio2–1FC Luanda1 Nov · away
Pick: 1º de Maio 56% · hit
D
Académica do Lobito1–1FC Luanda24 Oct · away
Pick: Académica do Lobito 43% · missed
L
FC Luanda0–2Desportivo Huíla18 Oct · home
Pick: FC Luanda 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

São Salvador

W
São Salvador1–0CD Lunda-Sul1 Nov · home
Pick: São Salvador 37% · hit
W
São Salvador2–11º de Maio18 Oct · home
Pick: São Salvador 47% · hit
L
Sagrada Esperança3–1São Salvador29 Aug · away
Pick: Sagrada Esperança 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Luanda and São Salvador meet in Girabola on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: FC Luanda win 38.8%, draw 36.9%, São Salvador win 24.3%. The pick is FC Luanda win. Over 2.5 goals: 33.6%. Both teams to score: 38.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.