Recreativo da Caála vs Académica do Lobito
Recreativo da Caála
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Académica do Lobito
Match result probability Model pick: Recreativo da Caála win
Recreativo da Caála winPick
43.5%
Draw
30.9%
Académica do Lobito win
25.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes36.5%
No63.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.536.1%
Under 2.563.9%
How much we know
Recreativo da Caála history1 match
Académica do Lobito history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Recreativo da Caála
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Recreativo da Caála are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Recreativo da Caála are rated 45 Elo points higher
Elo 1,502 against 1,456. On rating alone Recreativo da Caála would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Académica do Lobito score far more
0.00 goals a game over 1 matches for Recreativo da Caála, against 0.69 over 45 for Académica do Lobito.
-
Recreativo da Caála concede fewer
Recreativo da Caála concede 0.00 a game, Académica do Lobito 1.00.
-
Académica do Lobito games more often go over 2.5 goals
0% of Recreativo da Caála matches, against 22% for Académica do Lobito. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Recreativo da Caála
Académica do Lobito
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1501.8
ELO
1456.4
1
ELO · Matches
45
1501.8
Current Team ELO
1456.4
1456.4
Current Opponent ELO
1501.8
45.44
Current ELO Difference
-45.44
0.57
Expected score
0.43
1
History Matches
45
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.05
50.00
Overperformance
46.59
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
1
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
0.00
Goals for per game
0.40
0.00
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.00
Goals for per game
0.90
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals 90
1
Matches
45
1.00
PPG
1.04
0.0%
Win rate
22.2%
100.0%
Draw rate
37.8%
0.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
53.3%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
22.2%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
8.9%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
23
—
PPG
0.70
—
Win rate
13.0%
—
Draw rate
30.4%
—
Loss rate
56.5%
—
Over 1.5 rate
47.8%
—
Over 2.5 rate
21.7%
—
Over 3.5 rate
8.7%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
0
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.00
Goals for per game
0.69
0.0%
Scoring rate
55.6%
0.0%
BTTS rate
35.6%
—
Goals for per game
0.39
—
Scoring rate
39.1%
—
BTTS rate
26.1%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1
History Matches
45
0.00
Goals Mean
0.69
—
Goals Std
0.81
0.0%
Scored 1+ rate
55.6%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
6.7%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
4.4%
—
Venue Goals Mean
0.39
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
62.2%
—
Goals against per game
1.17
—
Conceding rate
65.2%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1
History Matches
45
0.00
Conceded Mean
1.00
—
Conceded Std
0.97
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.9%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.9%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
—
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
—
Failed-to-score rate
60.9%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
—
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
—
Failed-to-score rate
60.9%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
1
History Matches
45
0.00
Result entropy
0.97
—
Goal Difference Std
1.30
100.0
Stability score
2.74
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
1
Eligible Matches
43
0
Lead Matches
8
—
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.83
0
Trailing Matches
12
—
Non-loss rate
16.7%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.28
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.00
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
0
Normal Rest History Matches
23
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
0
Long Rest History Matches
18
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.72
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.05
—
Portability PPG Range
0.10
—
Portability Score
90.63
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
1
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals StdVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO45.44
PPG-0.04
GF-0.69
GA-1.00
PPG1.00
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-44
Clean-sheet rate62.2%
Failed-to-score rate55.6%
History Matches-23
History Matches-44
Goals Mean-0.69
Scored 1+ rate-0.56
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
History Matches-44
Conceded Mean-1.00
Clean-sheet rate62.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.29
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
History Matches-44
Result entropy-0.97
Stability score97.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.99
Eligible Matches-42
Lead Matches-8
Trailing Matches-12
Halftime Coverage Matches-42
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.58
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-23
Long Rest History Matches-18
Current Team ELO45.44
Current Opponent ELO-45.44
Current ELO Difference90.87
Expected score0.13
History Matches-44
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Recreativo da Caála
D
Kabuscorp0–0Recreativo da Caála1 Nov · away
Pick: Kabuscorp 51% · missed W
Recreativo da Caála1–01º de Agosto27 Oct · home
Pick: 1º de Agosto 37% · missed D
Sagrada Esperança1–1Recreativo da Caála17 Oct · away
Pick: Sagrada Esperança 37% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Académica do Lobito
L
Académica do Lobito0–1Bravos do Maquis FC31 Oct · home
Pick: Bravos do Maquis FC 41% · hit D
Académica do Lobito1–1FC Luanda24 Oct · home
Pick: Académica do Lobito 43% · missed D
Sporting de Cabinda0–0Académica do Lobito17 Oct · away
Pick: Académica do Lobito 52% · missed L
Académica do Lobito0–2Petro de Luanda30 Aug · home
Pick: Petro de Luanda 57% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Recreativo da Caála and Académica do Lobito meet in Girabola on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Recreativo da Caála win 43.5%, draw 30.9%, Académica do Lobito win 25.6%. The pick is Recreativo da Caála win. Over 2.5 goals: 36.1%. Both teams to score: 36.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.