ScoreProb
Girabola Angola Round 10 2026

Petro de Luanda vs 1º de Maio

Petro de Luanda Home · Elo 1,674
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
1º de Maio Away · Elo 1,503
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Petro de Luanda win
Petro de Luanda winPick
59.6%
Draw
29.2%
1º de Maio win
11.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes36.7%
No63.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.538.5%
Under 2.561.5%

How much we know

Petro de Luanda history58 matches
1º de Maio history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Petro de Luanda are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Petro de Luanda are rated 171 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,674 against 1,503. On rating alone Petro de Luanda would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Petro de Luanda score far more

    1.66 goals a game over 58 matches for Petro de Luanda, against 1.00 over 30 for 1º de Maio.

  • Petro de Luanda concede fewer

    Petro de Luanda concede 0.50 a game, 1º de Maio 1.10.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    33% of Petro de Luanda matches, against 27% for 1º de Maio. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Petro de Luanda
1º de Maio
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1673.7
ELO
1503.0
58
ELO · Matches
30
1673.7
Current Team ELO
1503.0
1503.0
Current Opponent ELO
1673.7
170.6
Current ELO Difference
-170.6
0.73
Expected score
0.27
58
History Matches
30
0.15
Residual Mean
0.01
61.43
Overperformance
50.74
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
0.20
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.90
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
0.70
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
30
2.17
PPG
1.27
63.8%
Win rate
33.3%
25.9%
Draw rate
26.7%
10.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
32.8%
Over 2.5 rate
26.7%
13.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
14
2.29
PPG
0.86
67.7%
Win rate
21.4%
25.8%
Draw rate
21.4%
6.5%
Loss rate
57.1%
67.7%
Over 1.5 rate
42.9%
32.3%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
16.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
31
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.66
Goals for per game
1.00
75.9%
Scoring rate
63.3%
31.0%
BTTS rate
43.3%
1.71
Goals for per game
0.71
80.6%
Scoring rate
50.0%
35.5%
BTTS rate
35.7%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
30
1.66
Goals Mean
1.00
1.38
Goals Std
1.03
75.9%
Scored 1+ rate
63.3%
51.7%
Scored 2+ rate
23.3%
24.1%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
0.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.50
Goals against per game
1.10
39.7%
Conceding rate
70.0%
0.45
Goals against per game
1.43
41.9%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
30
0.50
Conceded Mean
1.10
0.68
Conceded Std
1.14
10.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
0.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
60.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
58.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
60.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
58.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
60.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
30
0.79
Result entropy
0.99
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.37
20.70
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
28
25
Lead Matches
6
92.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.89
5
Trailing Matches
9
60.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
28
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.09
Rest days
77.09
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
32
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
20
Long Rest History Matches
13
2.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.22
Portability PPG Std
—
0.53
Portability PPG Range
—
69.45
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO170.6
PPG0.91
GF0.66
GA-0.60
PPG0.00
PPG1.43
PPG0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches28
Clean-sheet rate30.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate29.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches28
Goals Mean0.66
Goals Std0.35
Scored 1+ rate12.5%
Scored 2+ rate28.4%
Scored 3+ rate14.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches28
Conceded Mean-0.60
Conceded Std-0.46
Clean-sheet rate30.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches28
Result entropy-0.19
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score19.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.16
Eligible Matches25
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate8.7%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate37.8%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches25
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.47
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match1.20
Current Team ELO170.6
Current Opponent ELO-170.6
Current ELO Difference341.3
Expected score0.46
History Matches28
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance10.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Petro de Luanda

W
Petro de Luanda4–0Desportivo Huíla3 Nov · home
Pick: Petro de Luanda 65% · hit
D
1º de Agosto1–1Petro de Luanda31 Oct · away
Pick: 1º de Agosto 38% · missed
D
Bravos do Maquis FC1–1Petro de Luanda27 Oct · away
Pick: Bravos do Maquis FC 39% · missed
W
Petro de Luanda3–0Scotland Mabvuku23 Oct · home
Pick: Petro de Luanda 42% · hit
L
Scotland Mabvuku2–0Petro de Luanda18 Oct · away
Pick: Scotland Mabvuku 36% · hit

1º de Maio

W
1º de Maio2–1FC Luanda1 Nov · home
Pick: 1º de Maio 56% · hit
L
Sagrada Esperança3–01º de Maio24 Oct · away
Pick: Sagrada Esperança 39% · hit
L
São Salvador2–11º de Maio18 Oct · away
Pick: São Salvador 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Petro de Luanda and 1º de Maio meet in Girabola on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Petro de Luanda win 59.6%, draw 29.2%, 1º de Maio win 11.2%. The pick is Petro de Luanda win. Over 2.5 goals: 38.5%. Both teams to score: 36.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.