ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Congo - Kinshasa Round 4 2026

FC Mk de Kinshasa vs Etoile de Kivu

FC Mk de Kinshasa Home · Elo 1,486
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Etoile de Kivu Away · Elo 1,506
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Etoile de Kivu win
FC Mk de Kinshasa win
27.3%
Draw
36.3%
Etoile de Kivu winPick
36.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.4%
No54.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.535.6%
Under 2.564.4%

How much we know

FC Mk de Kinshasa history14 matches
Etoile de Kivu history24 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Etoile de Kivu are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,486 against 1,506. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Etoile de Kivu score far more

    0.57 goals a game over 14 matches for FC Mk de Kinshasa, against 1.21 over 24 for Etoile de Kivu.

  • FC Mk de Kinshasa concede fewer

    FC Mk de Kinshasa concede 1.07 a game, Etoile de Kivu 1.21.

  • Etoile de Kivu games more often go over 2.5 goals

    21% of FC Mk de Kinshasa matches, against 50% for Etoile de Kivu. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 1 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Mk de Kinshasa
Etoile de Kivu
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.4
ELO
1506.1
14
ELO · Matches
24
1486.4
Current Team ELO
1506.1
1506.1
Current Opponent ELO
1486.4
-19.71
Current ELO Difference
19.71
0.47
Expected score
0.53
14
History Matches
24
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
48.57
Overperformance
50.30
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
2.00
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.30
0.50
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
14
Matches
24
1.07
PPG
1.33
21.4%
Win rate
33.3%
42.9%
Draw rate
33.3%
35.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
21.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
7.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
13
1.00
PPG
1.08
12.5%
Win rate
23.1%
62.5%
Draw rate
38.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
38.5%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
46.2%
12.5%
Over 2.5 rate
30.8%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.15
8
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.57
Goals for per game
1.21
50.0%
Scoring rate
62.5%
35.7%
BTTS rate
37.5%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.85
50.0%
Scoring rate
61.5%
37.5%
BTTS rate
38.5%
14
History Matches
24
0.57
Goals Mean
1.21
0.62
Goals Std
1.15
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
7.1%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.8%
0.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
1.21
71.4%
Conceding rate
58.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.23
62.5%
Conceding rate
53.8%
14
History Matches
24
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.10
Conceded Std
1.29
14.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
14
History Matches
24
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.40
Goal Difference Std
1.71
3.43
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
10
Eligible Matches
21
3
Lead Matches
6
33.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.56
Lead Points Retention
0.78
2
Trailing Matches
4
0.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
10
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
220.2
Rest days
245.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
5
Normal Rest History Matches
14
0.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
6
Long Rest History Matches
4
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
14
Clean History Matches
24
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-19.71
PPG-0.26
GF-0.64
GA-0.14
PPG-0.08
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate12.5%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate11.5%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean-0.64
Goals Std-0.53
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Goals Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.61
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches-10
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score3.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-24.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.10
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.08
Current Team ELO-19.71
Current Opponent ELO19.71
Current ELO Difference-39.42
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-1.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Mk de Kinshasa

W
Anges Verts0–1FC Mk de Kinshasa31 Oct · away
Pick: Anges Verts 50% · missed
D
Céleste1–1FC Mk de Kinshasa20 Oct · away
Pick: Céleste 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Etoile de Kivu

W
Etoile de Kivu2–1Rangers31 Oct · home
Pick: Rangers 38% · missed
D
New Jack0–0Etoile de Kivu24 Oct · away
Pick: New Jack 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Mk de Kinshasa and Etoile de Kivu meet in Ligue 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Mk de Kinshasa win 27.3%, draw 36.3%, Etoile de Kivu win 36.4%. The pick is Etoile de Kivu win. Over 2.5 goals: 35.6%. Both teams to score: 45.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.