ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Congo - Kinshasa Round 3 2026

Saint Eloi Lupopo vs TP Mazembe

Saint Eloi Lupopo Home · Elo 1,625
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
TP Mazembe Away · Elo 1,697
Stade de la Victoire, Lubumbashi Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Saint Eloi Lupopo win
Saint Eloi Lupopo winPick
41.0%
Draw
31.1%
TP Mazembe win
27.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.9%
No56.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.3%
Under 2.560.7%

How much we know

Saint Eloi Lupopo history68 matches
TP Mazembe history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 5 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Saint Eloi Lupopo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • TP Mazembe are rated 72 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,697 against 1,625. On rating alone TP Mazembe would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • TP Mazembe score more

    1.38 goals a game over 68 matches for Saint Eloi Lupopo, against 1.79 over 61 for TP Mazembe.

  • TP Mazembe concede fewer

    Saint Eloi Lupopo concede 0.60 a game, TP Mazembe 0.48.

  • TP Mazembe games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of Saint Eloi Lupopo matches, against 44% for TP Mazembe. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Saint Eloi Lupopo
TP Mazembe
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1624.9
ELO
1697.4
68
ELO · Matches
61
1624.9
Current Team ELO
1697.4
1697.4
Current Opponent ELO
1624.9
-72.49
Current ELO Difference
72.49
0.40
Expected score
0.60
68
History Matches
61
0.08
Residual Mean
0.15
56.31
Overperformance
61.31
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.20
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.10
0.70
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
0.30
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.30
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
61
1.90
PPG
2.25
54.4%
Win rate
68.9%
26.5%
Draw rate
18.0%
19.1%
Loss rate
13.1%
54.4%
Over 1.5 rate
67.2%
32.4%
Over 2.5 rate
44.3%
14.7%
Over 3.5 rate
18.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
33
2.26
PPG
2.03
64.5%
Win rate
60.6%
32.3%
Draw rate
21.2%
3.2%
Loss rate
18.2%
61.3%
Over 1.5 rate
60.6%
35.5%
Over 2.5 rate
39.4%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
31
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.38
Goals for per game
1.79
73.5%
Scoring rate
83.6%
30.9%
BTTS rate
31.1%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.48
87.1%
Scoring rate
81.8%
38.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
68
History Matches
61
1.38
Goals Mean
1.79
1.34
Goals Std
1.27
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
83.6%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
52.5%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
31.1%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.60
Goals against per game
0.48
45.6%
Conceding rate
36.1%
0.42
Goals against per game
0.55
41.9%
Conceding rate
39.4%
68
History Matches
61
0.60
Conceded Mean
0.48
0.79
Conceded Std
0.72
10.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
9.8%
4.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.6%
0.42
Venue Conceded Mean
0.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
54.4%
Clean-sheet rate
63.9%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
58.1%
Clean-sheet rate
60.6%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
54.4%
Clean-sheet rate
63.9%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
58.1%
Clean-sheet rate
60.6%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
54.4%
Clean-sheet rate
63.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
61
0.91
Result entropy
0.76
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.48
9.04
Stability score
24.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
57
24
Lead Matches
28
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
96.4%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.98
11
Trailing Matches
5
45.5%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.21
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.30
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
140.0
Rest days
140.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
18
Short Rest History Matches
15
1.89
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
32
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.24
17
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.04
0.84
Portability PPG Range
0.08
56.32
Portability Score
92.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-72.49
PPG-0.35
GF-0.40
GA0.13
PPG0.23
PPG-0.20
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate10.1%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate0.5%
Conceded 3+ rate2.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches7
Result entropy0.15
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score-15.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate5.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.35
Portability PPG Range0.77
Portability Score-36.46
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO-72.49
Current Opponent ELO72.49
Current ELO Difference-145.0
Expected score-0.21
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Saint Eloi Lupopo

W
Butras0–2Saint Eloi Lupopo26 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
D
Saint Eloi Lupopo0–0AS New Soger20 Oct · home
Pick: Saint Eloi Lupopo 70% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

TP Mazembe

L
Club Africain1–0TP Mazembe25 Oct · away
Pick: TP Mazembe 35% · missed
D
TP Mazembe1–1Club Africain17 Oct · home
Pick: TP Mazembe 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Saint Eloi Lupopo and TP Mazembe meet in Ligue 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade de la Victoire, Lubumbashi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Saint Eloi Lupopo win 41.0%, draw 31.1%, TP Mazembe win 27.9%. The pick is Saint Eloi Lupopo win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.3%. Both teams to score: 43.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.