ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Congo - Kinshasa Round 4 2026

FC Renaissance vs Anges Verts

FC Renaissance Home · Elo 1,479
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Anges Verts Away · Elo 1,424
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Renaissance win
FC Renaissance winPick
35.6%
Draw
31.3%
Anges Verts win
33.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.5%
No58.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.8%
Under 2.557.2%

How much we know

FC Renaissance history17 matches
Anges Verts history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why FC Renaissance are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Renaissance are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,479 against 1,424. On rating alone FC Renaissance would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Anges Verts score more

    0.65 goals a game over 17 matches for FC Renaissance, against 0.80 over 44 for Anges Verts.

  • FC Renaissance concede fewer

    FC Renaissance concede 1.12 a game, Anges Verts 1.70.

  • Anges Verts games more often go over 2.5 goals

    18% of FC Renaissance matches, against 43% for Anges Verts. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Renaissance
Anges Verts
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1478.9
ELO
1424.3
17
ELO · Matches
44
1478.9
Current Team ELO
1424.3
1424.3
Current Opponent ELO
1478.9
54.58
Current ELO Difference
-54.58
0.58
Expected score
0.42
17
History Matches
44
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.07
47.87
Overperformance
45.15
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
0.40
Goals for per game
0.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
0.80
0.50
Goals for per game
0.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.40
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.49
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.34
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
17
Matches
44
1.06
PPG
0.75
17.6%
Win rate
11.4%
52.9%
Draw rate
40.9%
29.4%
Loss rate
47.7%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
17.6%
Over 2.5 rate
43.2%
5.9%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
10
Matches
19
1.20
PPG
0.63
20.0%
Win rate
10.5%
60.0%
Draw rate
31.6%
20.0%
Loss rate
57.9%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
10.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
10
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.65
Goals for per game
0.80
58.8%
Scoring rate
47.7%
41.2%
BTTS rate
43.2%
0.70
Goals for per game
0.53
70.0%
Scoring rate
36.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
31.6%
17
History Matches
44
0.65
Goals Mean
0.80
0.59
Goals Std
1.01
58.8%
Scored 1+ rate
47.7%
5.9%
Scored 2+ rate
20.5%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.4%
0.70
Venue Goals Mean
0.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.12
Goals against per game
1.70
64.7%
Conceding rate
77.3%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.84
60.0%
Conceding rate
73.7%
17
History Matches
44
1.12
Conceded Mean
1.70
1.28
Conceded Std
1.46
23.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.2%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.5%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.84
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
52.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
63.2%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
52.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
63.2%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
17
History Matches
44
0.91
Result entropy
0.88
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.74
8.73
Stability score
12.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
14
Eligible Matches
36
4
Lead Matches
4
25.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.50
Lead Points Retention
0.83
3
Trailing Matches
13
33.3%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.28
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
209.0
Rest days
200.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
9
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.83
6
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.59
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.22
—
Portability PPG Range
0.43
—
Portability Score
69.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
17
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO54.58
PPG0.31
GF-0.15
GA-0.59
PPG0.57
PPG0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-27
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches-27
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.42
Scored 1+ rate11.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.01
History Matches-27
Conceded Mean-0.59
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches-27
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-3.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches-22
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate25.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-22
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days9.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.50
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.41
Current Team ELO54.58
Current Opponent ELO-54.58
Current ELO Difference109.2
Expected score0.16
History Matches-27
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance2.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Renaissance

D
FC Renaissance0–0Céleste25 Oct · home
Pick: Céleste 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Anges Verts

L
Anges Verts0–1FC Mk de Kinshasa31 Oct · home
Pick: Anges Verts 50% · missed
W
Rangers0–1Anges Verts26 Oct · away
Pick: Rangers 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Renaissance and Anges Verts meet in Ligue 1 on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: FC Renaissance win 35.6%, draw 31.3%, Anges Verts win 33.1%. The pick is FC Renaissance win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.8%. Both teams to score: 41.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.