ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Congo - Kinshasa Round 4 2026

Saint-Luc vs Lubumbashi Sport

Saint-Luc Home · Elo 1,488
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lubumbashi Sport Away · Elo 1,507
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Saint-Luc win
28.9%
DrawPick
42.3%
Lubumbashi Sport win
28.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.1%
No56.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.530.9%
Under 2.569.1%

How much we know

Saint-Luc history23 matches
Lubumbashi Sport history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,488 against 1,507. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Lubumbashi Sport score more

    0.74 goals a game over 23 matches for Saint-Luc, against 0.84 over 32 for Lubumbashi Sport.

  • Lubumbashi Sport concede fewer

    Saint-Luc concede 1.09 a game, Lubumbashi Sport 0.97.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    30% of Saint-Luc matches, against 28% for Lubumbashi Sport. The model puts this match at 31% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 12 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Saint-Luc
Lubumbashi Sport
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1487.9
ELO
1506.5
23
ELO · Matches
32
1487.9
Current Team ELO
1506.5
1506.5
Current Opponent ELO
1487.9
-18.60
Current ELO Difference
18.60
0.47
Expected score
0.53
23
History Matches
32
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
48.85
Overperformance
52.05
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.10
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.46
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
23
Matches
32
1.22
PPG
1.44
30.4%
Win rate
37.5%
30.4%
Draw rate
31.3%
39.1%
Loss rate
31.3%
52.2%
Over 1.5 rate
56.3%
30.4%
Over 2.5 rate
28.1%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
9.4%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
12
1.58
PPG
1.17
41.7%
Win rate
25.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
41.7%
25.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
8.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
12
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.74
Goals for per game
0.84
56.5%
Scoring rate
62.5%
34.8%
BTTS rate
37.5%
0.83
Goals for per game
0.67
75.0%
Scoring rate
41.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
23
History Matches
32
0.74
Goals Mean
0.84
0.74
Goals Std
0.83
56.5%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
17.4%
Scored 2+ rate
15.6%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
6.3%
0.83
Venue Goals Mean
0.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.09
Goals against per game
0.97
65.2%
Conceding rate
62.5%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.17
50.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
23
History Matches
32
1.09
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.10
Conceded Std
1.02
26.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.9%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
58.3%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
58.3%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
23
History Matches
32
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.40
Goal Difference Std
1.45
0.67
Stability score
0.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
22
3
Lead Matches
7
33.3%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.56
Lead Points Retention
0.76
8
Trailing Matches
7
12.5%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
22
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
207.9
Rest days
223.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.44
13
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
4
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.26
—
Portability PPG Range
0.53
—
Portability Score
65.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
23
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-18.60
PPG-0.22
GF-0.10
GA0.12
PPG0.42
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate6.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate1.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate4.2%
Conceded 3+ rate3.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.92
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score0.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.72
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.38
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-16.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.13
Current Team ELO-18.60
Current Opponent ELO18.60
Current ELO Difference-37.20
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Saint-Luc

D
Tanganyika1–1Saint-Luc30 Oct · away
Pick: Tanganyika 57% · missed
D
Saint-Luc0–0CS Manika26 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 42% · hit
L
Simba2–0Saint-Luc20 Oct · away
Pick: Simba 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lubumbashi Sport

W
Lubumbashi Sport1–0Sanga Balende30 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 39% · missed
L
Blessing2–1Lubumbashi Sport26 Oct · away
Pick: Blessing 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Saint-Luc and Lubumbashi Sport meet in Ligue 1 on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Saint-Luc win 28.9%, draw 42.3%, Lubumbashi Sport win 28.8%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 30.9%. Both teams to score: 43.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.