ScoreProb
K League 1 South Korea Championship Group - 35 2026

FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC

FC Seoul Home · Elo 1,588
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ulsan Hyundai FC Away · Elo 1,492
Seoul World Cup Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Seoul win
FC Seoul winPick
49.5%
Draw
24.3%
Ulsan Hyundai FC win
26.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%

How much we know

FC Seoul history77 matches
Ulsan Hyundai FC history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Seoul are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Seoul are rated 96 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,492. On rating alone FC Seoul would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • FC Seoul score more

    1.47 goals a game over 77 matches for FC Seoul, against 1.20 over 76 for Ulsan Hyundai FC.

  • Defences are close

    FC Seoul concede 1.22 a game, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of FC Seoul matches, against 45% for Ulsan Hyundai FC. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Seoul
Ulsan Hyundai FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.0
ELO
1492.3
77
ELO · Matches
76
1588.0
Current Team ELO
1492.3
1492.3
Current Opponent ELO
1588.0
95.70
Current ELO Difference
-95.70
0.63
Expected score
0.37
77
History Matches
76
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.01
54.43
Overperformance
49.31
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.10
1.90
Goals for per game
1.50
0.90
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
2.21
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.41
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
76
1.49
PPG
1.22
40.3%
Win rate
32.9%
28.6%
Draw rate
23.7%
31.2%
Loss rate
43.4%
67.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
50.6%
Over 2.5 rate
44.7%
31.2%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
40
1.47
PPG
1.03
39.5%
Win rate
25.0%
28.9%
Draw rate
27.5%
31.6%
Loss rate
47.5%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
39.5%
Over 3.5 rate
22.5%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
38
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.20
75.3%
Scoring rate
72.4%
55.8%
BTTS rate
53.9%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.03
78.9%
Scoring rate
67.5%
57.9%
BTTS rate
55.0%
1.88
Goals for per game
1.54
80.0%
Scoring rate
79.2%
48.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
77
History Matches
76
1.47
Goals Mean
1.20
1.36
Goals Std
1.01
75.3%
Scored 1+ rate
72.4%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
35.5%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
9.2%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
1.33
67.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.43
68.4%
Conceding rate
85.0%
0.76
Goals against per game
1.42
52.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
77
History Matches
76
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.29
Conceded Std
1.13
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.5%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
24.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
24.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
76
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.49
1.00
Stability score
2.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
76
22
Lead Matches
16
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.90
19
Trailing Matches
24
21.1%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.77
Rest days
77.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.38
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.40
47
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.34
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
24
2.12
PPG
1.54
64.0%
Win rate
45.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
16.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
25
Current Competition Matches
24
2.12
Current Competition PPG
1.54
1.12
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.13
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.19
1.12
Portability PPG Range
0.42
51.30
Portability Score
72.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO95.70
PPG0.27
GF0.27
GA-0.11
PPG0.58
PPG0.45
PPG1.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate16.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.35
Scored 1+ rate3.0%
Scored 2+ rate2.1%
Scored 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.19
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score-1.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.04
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate2.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.58
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.70
Portability Score-21.26
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.98
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.23
Current Team ELO95.70
Current Opponent ELO-95.70
Current ELO Difference191.4
Expected score0.27
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance5.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Seoul

L
FC Seoul0–1Incheon United1 Nov · home
Pick: FC Seoul 53% · missed
W
Viettel0–5FC Seoul28 Oct · away
Pick: FC Seoul 43% · hit
D
FC Seoul1–1Gangwon FC24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Seoul 46% · missed
D
FC Seoul2–2Gimcheon Sangmu FC18 Oct · home
Pick: FC Seoul 58% · missed
L
Melbourne Victory3–0FC Seoul14 Oct · away
Pick: FC Seoul 50% · missed

Ulsan Hyundai FC

W
Ulsan Hyundai FC2–1Gangwon FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% · hit
D
Ulsan Hyundai FC2–2Pohang Steelers24 Oct · home
Pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% · missed
W
Ulsan Hyundai FC2–1Bucheon FC 199517 Oct · home
Pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% · hit
W
Ulsan Hyundai FC3–1Gimcheon Sangmu FC29 Aug · home
Pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% · hit
L
Daejeon Citizen2–1Ulsan Hyundai FC26 Aug · away
Pick: Daejeon Citizen 43% · hit

About this match

FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC meet in K League 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Seoul World Cup Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: FC Seoul win 49.5%, draw 24.3%, Ulsan Hyundai FC win 26.2%. The pick is FC Seoul win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.