ScoreProb
K League 1 South Korea Championship Group - 35 2026

Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors

Gangwon FC Home · Elo 1,542
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Jeonbuk Motors Away · Elo 1,586
Chuncheon Songam Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gangwon FC win
Gangwon FC winPick
38.0%
Draw
31.3%
Jeonbuk Motors win
30.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.8%
No51.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.6%
Under 2.553.4%

How much we know

Gangwon FC history82 matches
Jeonbuk Motors history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 22 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 07:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Gangwon FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Jeonbuk Motors are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,586 against 1,542. On rating alone Jeonbuk Motors would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Jeonbuk Motors score more

    1.02 goals a game over 82 matches for Gangwon FC, against 1.49 over 78 for Jeonbuk Motors.

  • Jeonbuk Motors concede fewer

    Gangwon FC concede 1.11 a game, Jeonbuk Motors 0.91.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Gangwon FC matches, against 44% for Jeonbuk Motors. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gangwon FC
Jeonbuk Motors
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1541.6
ELO
1585.6
82
ELO · Matches
78
1541.6
Current Team ELO
1585.6
1585.6
Current Opponent ELO
1541.6
-44.00
Current ELO Difference
44.00
0.44
Expected score
0.56
82
History Matches
78
0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
51.74
Overperformance
53.93
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
0.80
Goals for per game
1.10
1.30
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
78
1.34
PPG
1.81
32.9%
Win rate
50.0%
35.4%
Draw rate
30.8%
31.7%
Loss rate
19.2%
62.2%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
42.7%
Over 2.5 rate
43.6%
17.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.6%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
40
1.46
PPG
1.78
33.3%
Win rate
47.5%
46.2%
Draw rate
35.0%
20.5%
Loss rate
17.5%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.0%
43.6%
Over 2.5 rate
32.5%
20.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
39
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.02
Goals for per game
1.49
63.4%
Scoring rate
80.8%
42.7%
BTTS rate
52.6%
1.13
Goals for per game
1.35
66.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
46.2%
BTTS rate
45.0%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.24
73.9%
Scoring rate
72.0%
43.5%
BTTS rate
44.0%
82
History Matches
78
1.02
Goals Mean
1.49
0.99
Goals Std
1.06
63.4%
Scored 1+ rate
80.8%
29.3%
Scored 2+ rate
47.4%
8.5%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
0.91
62.2%
Conceding rate
60.3%
1.05
Goals against per game
0.78
56.4%
Conceding rate
55.0%
0.96
Goals against per game
0.88
56.5%
Conceding rate
52.0%
82
History Matches
78
1.11
Conceded Mean
0.91
1.13
Conceded Std
0.92
31.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.1%
13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
0.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
36.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
45.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
48.0%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
36.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
45.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
78
1.00
Result entropy
0.93
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.33
0.09
Stability score
6.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
78
23
Lead Matches
28
78.3%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.83
20
Trailing Matches
12
40.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
15.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
74.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
15
1.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.87
51
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
20
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
25
1.52
PPG
1.52
39.1%
Win rate
40.0%
34.8%
Draw rate
32.0%
26.1%
Loss rate
28.0%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
36.0%
8.7%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
23
Current Competition Matches
25
1.52
Current Competition PPG
1.52
0.26
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.36
8
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.75
Portability PPG Range
0.83
62.97
Portability Score
61.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-44.00
PPG-0.47
GF-0.46
GA0.20
PPG0.00
PPG-0.31
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate17.4%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches4
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-6.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate0.00
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate6.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.10
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score1.80
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Current Team ELO-44.00
Current Opponent ELO44.00
Current ELO Difference-87.99
Expected score-0.13
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gangwon FC

L
Ulsan Hyundai FC2–1Gangwon FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% · hit
W
Gangwon FC1–0Kuching FA29 Oct · home
Pick: Gangwon FC 48% · hit
D
FC Seoul1–1Gangwon FC24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Seoul 46% · missed
D
Gangwon FC1–1Incheon United18 Oct · home
Pick: Gangwon FC 40% · missed
L
Gangwon FC1–2Phnom Penh Crown15 Oct · home
Pick: Gangwon FC 51% · missed

Jeonbuk Motors

W
Jeonbuk Motors2–0Johor Darul Takzim FC3 Nov · home
Pick: Johor Darul Takzim FC 41% · missed
D
Beijing Guoan2–2Jeonbuk Motors27 Oct · away
Pick: Jeonbuk Motors 41% · missed
D
FC Anyang1–1Jeonbuk Motors24 Oct · away
Pick: Jeonbuk Motors 45% · missed
W
Jeonbuk Motors3–2Jeju United FC18 Oct · home
Pick: Jeonbuk Motors 53% · hit
L
Vissel Kobe2–0Jeonbuk Motors14 Oct · away
Pick: Vissel Kobe 48% · hit

About this match

Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors meet in K League 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 07:30 UTC. The match is played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Gangwon FC win 38.0%, draw 31.3%, Jeonbuk Motors win 30.8%. The pick is Gangwon FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.6%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.