ScoreProb
Premier League Armenia Round 13 2026

FC Urartu vs Ararat-Armenia

FC Urartu Home · Elo 1,565
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ararat-Armenia Away · Elo 1,652
Urartu Stadium, Yerevan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Urartu win
FC Urartu winPick
37.9%
Draw
26.7%
Ararat-Armenia win
35.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%

How much we know

FC Urartu history65 matches
Ararat-Armenia history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why FC Urartu are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ararat-Armenia are rated 87 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,652 against 1,565. On rating alone Ararat-Armenia would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.82 goals a game over 65 matches for FC Urartu, against 1.93 over 72 for Ararat-Armenia.

  • Ararat-Armenia concede fewer

    FC Urartu concede 1.35 a game, Ararat-Armenia 1.01.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of FC Urartu matches, against 54% for Ararat-Armenia. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Urartu
Ararat-Armenia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1565.4
ELO
1652.3
65
ELO · Matches
72
1565.4
Current Team ELO
1652.3
1652.3
Current Opponent ELO
1565.4
-86.86
Current ELO Difference
86.86
0.38
Expected score
0.62
65
History Matches
72
0.04
Residual Mean
0.10
53.30
Overperformance
57.89
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.90
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.48
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
72
1.60
PPG
1.99
46.2%
Win rate
59.7%
21.5%
Draw rate
19.4%
32.3%
Loss rate
20.8%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
34.7%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
37
1.47
PPG
1.89
43.3%
Win rate
56.8%
16.7%
Draw rate
18.9%
40.0%
Loss rate
24.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
63.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.1%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
40.5%
2.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
30
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.82
Goals for per game
1.93
81.5%
Scoring rate
83.3%
52.3%
BTTS rate
48.6%
2.03
Goals for per game
1.89
73.3%
Scoring rate
81.1%
43.3%
BTTS rate
45.9%
1.75
Goals for per game
2.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
65
History Matches
72
1.82
Goals Mean
1.93
1.58
Goals Std
1.46
81.5%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
49.2%
Scored 2+ rate
56.9%
24.6%
Scored 3+ rate
29.2%
2.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
1.01
66.2%
Conceding rate
59.7%
1.43
Goals against per game
1.14
66.7%
Conceding rate
56.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
65
History Matches
72
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.01
1.29
Conceded Std
1.07
41.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.2%
18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
1.43
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.3%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.2%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.3%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.2%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
72
0.96
Result entropy
0.87
2.21
Goal Difference Std
1.90
4.19
Stability score
13.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
68
23
Lead Matches
24
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.92
15
Trailing Matches
16
40.0%
Non-loss rate
43.8%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
31.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.08
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
31
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.96
27
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.71
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
2.50
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
9
Competition Season Count
11
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.86
Portability PPG Range
2.00
64.88
Portability Score
46.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-86.86
PPG-0.39
GF-0.12
GA0.34
PPG-0.75
PPG-0.43
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate1.8%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate12.4%
Conceded 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.31
Stability score-9.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.69
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.31
Portability PPG Range-1.14
Portability Score18.79
Rest days1.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Current Team ELO-86.86
Current Opponent ELO86.86
Current ELO Difference-173.7
Expected score-0.24
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Urartu

L
Pyunik Yerevan1–0FC Urartu30 Oct · away
Pick: Pyunik Yerevan 56% · hit
W
FC Urartu3–2Andranik27 Oct · home
Pick: FC Urartu 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ararat-Armenia

W
Ararat-Armenia3–0Gandzasar1 Nov · home
Pick: Ararat-Armenia 81% · hit
W
Ararat-Armenia2–1FC Noah26 Oct · home
Pick: FC Noah 44% · missed
L
Ararat-Armenia0–4AZ Alkmaar22 Oct · home
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 42% · hit
W
BKMA0–1Ararat-Armenia18 Oct · away
Pick: Ararat-Armenia 64% · hit
L
Jagiellonia3–1Ararat-Armenia15 Oct · away
Pick: Jagiellonia 46% · hit

About this match

FC Urartu and Ararat-Armenia meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Urartu Stadium, Yerevan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: FC Urartu win 37.9%, draw 26.7%, Ararat-Armenia win 35.4%. The pick is FC Urartu win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.7%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.