FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken
Match result probability Model pick: FC Viktoria Köln win
FC Viktoria Köln winPick
37.8%
Draw
27.4%
FC Saarbrücken win
34.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.2%
No41.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.5%
Under 2.541.5%
How much we know
FC Viktoria Köln history71 matches
FC Saarbrücken history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours FC Viktoria Köln
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
- Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why FC Viktoria Köln are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,537 against 1,529. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.61 goals a game over 71 matches for FC Viktoria Köln, against 1.63 over 68 for FC Saarbrücken.
-
Defences are close
FC Viktoria Köln concede 1.44 a game, FC Saarbrücken 1.43.
-
FC Viktoria Köln games more often go over 2.5 goals
58% of FC Viktoria Köln matches, against 47% for FC Saarbrücken. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Saarbrücken@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1536.7
ELO
1529.5
71
ELO · Matches
68
1536.7
Current Team ELO
1529.5
1529.5
Current Opponent ELO
1536.7
7.19
Current ELO Difference
-7.19
0.51
Expected score
0.49
71
History Matches
68
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
52.79
Overperformance
51.96
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.60
2.70
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals 90
71
Matches
68
1.44
PPG
1.37
42.3%
Win rate
35.3%
16.9%
Draw rate
30.9%
40.8%
Loss rate
33.8%
85.9%
Over 1.5 rate
86.8%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.41
Venue performance10 signals 100
39
Matches
33
1.51
PPG
1.00
46.2%
Win rate
21.2%
12.8%
Draw rate
36.4%
41.0%
Loss rate
42.4%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.8%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
39.4%
35.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
39
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.61
Goals for per game
1.63
77.5%
Scoring rate
76.5%
56.3%
BTTS rate
60.3%
1.72
Goals for per game
1.09
79.5%
Scoring rate
66.7%
59.0%
BTTS rate
54.5%
2.50
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
68
1.61
Goals Mean
1.63
1.36
Goals Std
2.00
77.5%
Scored 1+ rate
76.5%
46.5%
Scored 2+ rate
45.6%
22.5%
Scored 3+ rate
16.2%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.43
74.6%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.59
Goals against per game
1.48
74.4%
Conceding rate
78.8%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
68
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.25
Conceded Std
1.20
42.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.2%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.1%
1.59
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
71
History Matches
68
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.88
Goal Difference Std
2.41
6.23
Stability score
0.14
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
69
Eligible Matches
67
23
Lead Matches
22
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.88
23
Trailing Matches
25
8.7%
Non-loss rate
32.0%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
76.19
Rest days
76.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
34
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
29
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.12
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
7
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.27
1.57
Portability PPG Range
0.64
45.77
Portability Score
65.18
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
71
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO7.19
PPG0.07
GF-0.03
GA0.01
PPG-1.50
PPG0.51
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std-0.64
Scored 1+ rate1.0%
Scored 2+ rate0.9%
Scored 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Conceded 2+ rate4.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.53
Stability score6.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.90
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate0.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.33
Portability PPG Range0.93
Portability Score-19.41
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.24
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.16
Current Team ELO7.19
Current Opponent ELO-7.19
Current ELO Difference14.37
Expected score0.02
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
FC Viktoria Köln
W
Hoffenheim II0–1FC Viktoria Köln31 Oct · away
Pick: Hoffenheim II 44% · missed W
FC Viktoria Köln3–1Verl24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Viktoria Köln 57% · hit D
MSV Duisburg1–1FC Viktoria Köln18 Oct · away
Pick: MSV Duisburg 55% · missed D
FC Viktoria Köln2–2SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach14 Oct · home
Pick: FC Viktoria Köln 48% · missed W
FC Viktoria Köln4–1Preußen Münster30 Aug · home
Pick: FC Viktoria Köln 42% · hit FC Saarbrücken
W
FC Saarbrücken2–1Waldhof Mannheim1 Nov · home
Pick: FC Saarbrücken 53% · hit L
Havelse3–2FC Saarbrücken25 Oct · away
Pick: FC Saarbrücken 51% · missed W
Fortuna Düsseldorf1–3FC Saarbrücken17 Oct · away
Pick: FC Saarbrücken 48% · hit L
FC Saarbrücken2–4MSV Duisburg13 Oct · home
Pick: FC Saarbrücken 38% · missed L
FC Saarbrücken2–4Hansa Rostock30 Aug · home
Pick: FC Saarbrücken 51% · missed About this match
FC Viktoria Köln and FC Saarbrücken meet in 3. Liga on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Sportpark Höhenberg, Cologne. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: FC Viktoria Köln win 37.8%, draw 27.4%, FC Saarbrücken win 34.8%. The pick is FC Viktoria Köln win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.5%. Both teams to score: 58.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.