ScoreProb
Liga 1 Moldova Round 13 2026

FCM Ungheni vs Univer Comrat

FCM Ungheni Home · Elo 1,514
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Univer Comrat Away · Elo 1,476
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FCM Ungheni win
FCM Ungheni winPick
69.9%
Draw
10.9%
Univer Comrat win
19.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes69.0%
No31.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.579.5%
Under 2.520.5%

How much we know

FCM Ungheni history40 matches
Univer Comrat history12 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why FCM Ungheni are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FCM Ungheni are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,514 against 1,476. On rating alone FCM Ungheni would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • FCM Ungheni score more

    2.23 goals a game over 40 matches for FCM Ungheni, against 1.83 over 12 for Univer Comrat.

  • FCM Ungheni concede fewer

    FCM Ungheni concede 1.93 a game, Univer Comrat 2.33.

  • FCM Ungheni games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of FCM Ungheni matches, against 58% for Univer Comrat. The model puts this match at 79% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FCM Ungheni
Univer Comrat@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1514.0
ELO
1476.2
40
ELO · Matches
12
1514.0
Current Team ELO
1476.2
1476.2
Current Opponent ELO
1514.0
37.78
Current ELO Difference
-37.78
0.55
Expected score
0.45
40
History Matches
12
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.07
50.55
Overperformance
47.42
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
3.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.50
2.70
Goals for per game
2.20
2.10
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.85
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.84
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
12
1.45
PPG
1.25
40.0%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
35.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
65.0%
Over 3.5 rate
58.3%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
4
1.67
PPG
1.75
44.4%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
22.2%
Loss rate
25.0%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
77.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
72.2%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.45
18
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.23
Goals for per game
1.83
85.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
77.5%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.56
Goals for per game
2.00
94.4%
Scoring rate
100.0%
83.3%
BTTS rate
75.0%
2.75
Goals for per game
2.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
40
History Matches
12
2.23
Goals Mean
1.83
1.49
Goals Std
1.40
85.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
67.5%
Scored 2+ rate
58.3%
42.5%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
2.56
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.93
Goals against per game
2.33
90.0%
Conceding rate
91.7%
1.61
Goals against per game
2.00
88.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.75
Goals against per game
3.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
40
History Matches
12
1.93
Conceded Mean
2.33
1.49
Conceded Std
1.55
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
27.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
41.7%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
12
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
2.12
Goal Difference Std
2.06
1.65
Stability score
1.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
9
17
Lead Matches
3
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.78
12
Trailing Matches
5
33.3%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
9
1.12
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.22
1.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
19
Normal Rest History Matches
4
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.50
17
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
8
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.57
59.41
Portability Score
63.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
12
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO37.78
PPG0.20
GF0.39
GA-0.41
PPG0.75
PPG-0.08
PPG0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches28
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches28
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate10.0%
Scored 2+ rate9.2%
Scored 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.60
History Matches28
Conceded Mean-0.41
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.23
History Matches28
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-0.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches25
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate3.9%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches25
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.29
Portability Score-4.23
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.82
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO37.78
Current Opponent ELO-37.78
Current ELO Difference75.57
Expected score0.11
History Matches28
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance3.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FCM Ungheni

D
Spartanii Selemet2–2FCM Ungheni30 Oct · away
Pick: FCM Ungheni 69% · missed
L
Milsami Orhei7–0FCM Ungheni27 Oct · away
Pick: Milsami Orhei 69% · hit
W
FCM Ungheni6–1Vulturii Cutezători24 Oct · home
Pick: FCM Ungheni 57% · hit
D
Iskra2–2FCM Ungheni16 Oct · away
Pick: Iskra 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Univer Comrat

W
Univer Comrat2–1Zimbru II30 Oct · home
Pick: Zimbru II 43% · missed
L
Dacia-Buiucani6–0Univer Comrat27 Oct · away
Pick: Dacia-Buiucani 69% · hit
L
Univer Comrat0–1Iskra23 Oct · home
Pick: Iskra 64% · hit
W
Univer Comrat5–4Spartanii Selemet16 Oct · home
Pick: Univer Comrat 55% · hit
W
Spartanii Selemet0–3Univer Comrat1 Sep · away
Pick: Spartanii Selemet 55% · missed

About this match

FCM Ungheni and Univer Comrat meet in Liga 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FCM Ungheni win 69.9%, draw 10.9%, Univer Comrat win 19.1%. The pick is FCM Ungheni win. Over 2.5 goals: 79.5%. Both teams to score: 69.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.