ScoreProb
Liga 1 Moldova Round 13 2026

Victoria Bardar vs FC Stăuceni

Victoria Bardar Home · Elo 1,412
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Stăuceni Away · Elo 1,508
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Stăuceni win
Victoria Bardar win
29.1%
Draw
23.3%
FC Stăuceni winPick
47.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.7%
No34.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.7%
Under 2.533.3%

How much we know

Victoria Bardar history38 matches
FC Stăuceni history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Stăuceni are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Stăuceni are rated 97 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,508 against 1,412. On rating alone FC Stăuceni would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • FC Stăuceni score more

    1.34 goals a game over 38 matches for Victoria Bardar, against 1.97 over 39 for FC Stăuceni.

  • FC Stăuceni concede fewer

    Victoria Bardar concede 2.37 a game, FC Stăuceni 1.41.

  • Victoria Bardar games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of Victoria Bardar matches, against 56% for FC Stăuceni. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Victoria Bardar
FC Stăuceni@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1411.6
ELO
1508.4
38
ELO · Matches
39
1411.6
Current Team ELO
1508.4
1508.4
Current Opponent ELO
1411.6
-96.85
Current ELO Difference
96.85
0.36
Expected score
0.64
38
History Matches
39
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.01
42.18
Overperformance
50.67
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
2.20
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.98
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
39
0.92
PPG
1.69
26.3%
Win rate
48.7%
13.2%
Draw rate
23.1%
60.5%
Loss rate
28.2%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
73.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
52.6%
Over 3.5 rate
48.7%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
19
0.83
PPG
1.42
22.2%
Win rate
42.1%
16.7%
Draw rate
15.8%
61.1%
Loss rate
42.1%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
63.2%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
18
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.97
68.4%
Scoring rate
76.9%
63.2%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.39
Goals for per game
1.68
72.2%
Scoring rate
73.7%
72.2%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
38
History Matches
39
1.34
Goals Mean
1.97
1.32
Goals Std
1.80
68.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
36.8%
Scored 2+ rate
48.7%
15.8%
Scored 3+ rate
35.9%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.37
Goals against per game
1.41
89.5%
Conceding rate
64.1%
2.28
Goals against per game
1.63
94.4%
Conceding rate
57.9%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
38
History Matches
39
2.37
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.80
Conceded Std
1.63
57.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.2%
42.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.6%
2.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.9%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.9%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
39
0.84
Result entropy
0.95
2.43
Goal Difference Std
2.35
16.07
Stability score
4.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
35
8
Lead Matches
14
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.74
18
Trailing Matches
7
16.7%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
1.15
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
1.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.83
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
18
Normal Rest History Matches
22
0.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.77
16
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.78
0.49
Portability PPG Range
2.08
71.50
Portability Score
39.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-96.85
PPG-0.77
GF-0.63
GA0.96
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.59
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate8.5%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.37
Failed-to-score rate1.5%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.63
Goals Std-0.48
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.96
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate29.7%
Conceded 3+ rate16.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.14
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score11.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.50
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate2.4%
Trailing Win Rate2.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.58
Portability PPG Range-1.59
Portability Score32.33
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.67
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.88
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-96.85
Current Opponent ELO96.85
Current ELO Difference-193.7
Expected score-0.27
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-8.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Victoria Bardar

L
Făleşti4–3Victoria Bardar31 Oct · away
Pick: Făleşti 50% · hit
L
Sireți8–0Victoria Bardar28 Oct · away
Pick: Sireți 63% · hit
L
Victoria Bardar0–1Oguzsport24 Oct · home
Pick: Victoria Bardar 39% · missed
L
FC National Ialoveni2–1Victoria Bardar16 Oct · away
Pick: Victoria Bardar 42% · missed
W
Victoria Bardar5–3Făleşti1 Sep · home
Pick: Victoria Bardar 44% · hit

FC Stăuceni

W
FC Stăuceni1–0FC National Ialoveni24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Stăuceni 62% · hit
D
FC Stăuceni1–1Făleşti17 Oct · home
Pick: FC Stăuceni 45% · missed
W
Făleşti1–2FC Stăuceni29 Aug · away
Pick: Făleşti 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Victoria Bardar and FC Stăuceni meet in Liga 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Victoria Bardar win 29.1%, draw 23.3%, FC Stăuceni win 47.5%. The pick is FC Stăuceni win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.7%. Both teams to score: 65.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.