ScoreProb
Liga I Romania Round 15 2026

FCSB vs Corvinul Hunedoara

FCSB Home · Elo 1,546
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Corvinul Hunedoara Away · Elo 1,623
Arena Nationala, Bucharest Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FCSB win
FCSB winPick
46.2%
Draw
23.5%
Corvinul Hunedoara win
30.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.7%
Under 2.545.3%

How much we know

FCSB history94 matches
Corvinul Hunedoara history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FCSB are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Corvinul Hunedoara are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,623 against 1,546. On rating alone Corvinul Hunedoara would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.52 goals a game over 94 matches for FCSB, against 1.55 over 55 for Corvinul Hunedoara.

  • Corvinul Hunedoara concede fewer

    FCSB concede 1.34 a game, Corvinul Hunedoara 0.71.

  • FCSB games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of FCSB matches, against 42% for Corvinul Hunedoara. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FCSB
Corvinul Hunedoara
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1545.6
ELO
1622.7
94
ELO · Matches
55
1545.6
Current Team ELO
1622.7
1622.7
Current Opponent ELO
1545.6
-77.14
Current ELO Difference
77.14
0.39
Expected score
0.61
94
History Matches
55
0.02
Residual Mean
0.10
51.71
Overperformance
57.39
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.10
1.70
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
94
Matches
55
1.57
PPG
2.00
44.7%
Win rate
60.0%
23.4%
Draw rate
20.0%
31.9%
Loss rate
20.0%
74.5%
Over 1.5 rate
58.2%
55.3%
Over 2.5 rate
41.8%
37.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.8%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
30
1.85
PPG
2.03
54.3%
Win rate
63.3%
21.7%
Draw rate
13.3%
23.9%
Loss rate
23.3%
76.1%
Over 1.5 rate
56.7%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
43.3%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
46
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.52
Goals for per game
1.55
77.7%
Scoring rate
70.9%
55.3%
BTTS rate
36.4%
1.72
Goals for per game
1.53
84.8%
Scoring rate
70.0%
56.5%
BTTS rate
36.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.17
66.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
16.7%
94
History Matches
55
1.52
Goals Mean
1.55
1.18
Goals Std
1.32
77.7%
Scored 1+ rate
70.9%
45.7%
Scored 2+ rate
47.3%
22.3%
Scored 3+ rate
29.1%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
1.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.34
Goals against per game
0.71
70.2%
Conceding rate
52.7%
1.20
Goals against per game
0.77
65.2%
Conceding rate
53.3%
0.83
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
94
History Matches
55
1.34
Conceded Mean
0.71
1.20
Conceded Std
0.75
39.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.2%
18.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
0.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
47.3%
22.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
47.3%
22.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
47.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
94
History Matches
55
0.97
Result entropy
0.86
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.39
3.12
Stability score
13.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
94
Eligible Matches
55
34
Lead Matches
23
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
91.3%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.94
23
Trailing Matches
5
30.4%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
17.4%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
94
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
17
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.47
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
58
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.08
18
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.09
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.83
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
16.7%
Loss rate
16.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.83
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
10
Competition Season Count
7
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.58
Portability PPG Range
1.03
52.00
Portability Score
53.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
94
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-77.14
PPG-0.43
GF-0.02
GA0.63
PPG0.33
PPG-0.19
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches39
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches39
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate6.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches39
Conceded Mean0.63
Conceded Std0.44
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate21.2%
Conceded 3+ rate18.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.74
History Matches39
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score-10.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches39
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches18
Non-loss rate10.4%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches39
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.55
Portability Score-1.83
Rest days-1.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Short Rest Points Per Match0.07
Normal Rest History Matches32
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO-77.14
Current Opponent ELO77.14
Current ELO Difference-154.3
Expected score-0.22
History Matches39
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FCSB

L
Universitatea Cluj1–0FCSB2 Nov · away
Pick: FCSB 37% · missed
L
Gloria Bistriţa1–0FCSB29 Oct · away
Pick: FCSB 50% · missed
W
FCSB4–1Rapid24 Oct · home
Pick: FCSB 50% · hit
W
FC Voluntari1–2FCSB19 Oct · away
Pick: FCSB 45% · hit
L
FCSB1–3Uta Arad30 Aug · home
Pick: FCSB 66% · missed

Corvinul Hunedoara

D
Corvinul Hunedoara0–0Rapid27 Oct · home
Pick: Corvinul Hunedoara 41% · missed
D
Corvinul Hunedoara1–1Dinamo Bucuresti29 Aug · home
Pick: Corvinul Hunedoara 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FCSB and Corvinul Hunedoara meet in Liga I on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. The match is played at Arena Nationala, Bucharest. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FCSB win 46.2%, draw 23.5%, Corvinul Hunedoara win 30.3%. The pick is FCSB win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.7%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.