ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 1 Italy Round 10 2026

Fiorentina U20 vs Como U20

Fiorentina U20 Home · Elo 1,586
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Como U20 Away · Elo 1,491
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fiorentina U20 win
Fiorentina U20 winPick
70.0%
Draw
15.1%
Como U20 win
14.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.2%
No55.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.9%
Under 2.537.1%

How much we know

Fiorentina U20 history65 matches
Como U20 history1 match
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (70.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Fiorentina U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fiorentina U20 are rated 96 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,586 against 1,491. On rating alone Fiorentina U20 would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Fiorentina U20 score far more

    1.78 goals a game over 65 matches for Fiorentina U20, against 0.00 over 1 for Como U20.

  • Como U20 concede fewer

    Fiorentina U20 concede 1.37 a game, Como U20 1.00.

  • Fiorentina U20 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Fiorentina U20 matches, against 0% for Como U20. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fiorentina U20
Como U20
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1586.0
ELO
1490.5
65
ELO · Matches
1
1586.0
Current Team ELO
1490.5
1490.5
Current Opponent ELO
1586.0
95.53
Current ELO Difference
-95.53
0.63
Expected score
0.37
65
History Matches
1
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.57
55.05
Overperformance
47.30
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.57
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
1
1.40
PPG
0.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.00
2.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
1
1.90
PPG
0.00
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
1.90
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.00
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
2.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
3.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
1
1.74
PPG
0.00
50.8%
Win rate
0.0%
21.5%
Draw rate
0.0%
27.7%
Loss rate
100.0%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
63.1%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
36.9%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
1
2.09
PPG
0.00
63.6%
Win rate
0.0%
18.2%
Draw rate
0.0%
18.2%
Loss rate
100.0%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
69.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
33
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.78
Goals for per game
0.00
89.2%
Scoring rate
0.0%
70.8%
BTTS rate
0.0%
2.24
Goals for per game
0.00
93.9%
Scoring rate
0.0%
69.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
65
History Matches
1
1.78
Goals Mean
0.00
1.21
Goals Std
—
89.2%
Scored 1+ rate
0.0%
56.9%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
18.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.24
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.00
81.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.00
75.8%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
1
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.26
Conceded Std
—
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
6.1%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
6.1%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
1
0.94
Result entropy
0.00
1.87
Goal Difference Std
—
6.21
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
1
19
Lead Matches
0
89.5%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.91
Lead Points Retention
—
16
Trailing Matches
0
37.5%
Non-loss rate
—
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.97
Rest days
77.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
40
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
24
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.11
Portability PPG Std
—
0.22
Portability PPG Range
—
82.07
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
1
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO95.53
PPG1.74
GF1.78
GA0.37
PPG1.00
PPG2.09
PPG1.40
PPG1.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches64
Clean-sheet rate18.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.89
History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate24.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.94
History Matches64
Goals Mean1.78
Scored 1+ rate89.2%
Scored 2+ rate56.9%
Scored 3+ rate18.5%
Venue Goals Mean2.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.00
History Matches64
Conceded Mean0.37
Clean-sheet rate18.5%
Conceded 2+ rate30.8%
Conceded 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
History Matches64
Result entropy0.94
Stability score-93.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.82
Eligible Matches62
Lead Matches19
Trailing Matches16
Halftime Coverage Matches62
First Half Goals For Mean0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count6
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.76
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches40
Long Rest History Matches24
Current Team ELO95.53
Current Opponent ELO-95.53
Current ELO Difference191.1
Expected score0.27
History Matches64
Residual Mean0.63
Overperformance7.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.63

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fiorentina U20

W
Cesena U200–2Fiorentina U2031 Oct · away
Pick: Cesena U20 46% · missed
W
Fiorentina U204–2Milan U2024 Oct · home
Pick: Fiorentina U20 49% · hit
W
Albinoleffe U200–2Fiorentina U2017 Oct · away
Pick: Fiorentina U20 52% · hit
L
Fiorentina U200–1Hellas Verona U2031 Aug · home
Pick: Fiorentina U20 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Como U20

W
Como U202–1Atalanta U2031 Oct · home
Pick: Como U20 41% · hit
W
Como U202–0Pescara U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Pescara U19 38% · missed
L
Cagliari U203–2Como U2025 Oct · away
Pick: Cagliari U20 63% · hit
W
Como U201–0Hellas Verona U2018 Oct · home
Pick: Hellas Verona U20 34% · missed
D
Como U200–0Juventus U2029 Aug · home
Pick: Juventus U20 35% · missed

About this match

Fiorentina U20 and Como U20 meet in Campionato Primavera - 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Fiorentina U20 win 70.0%, draw 15.1%, Como U20 win 14.9%. The pick is Fiorentina U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.9%. Both teams to score: 44.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.