ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 1 Italy Round 10 2026

Roma U20 vs Hellas Verona U20

Roma U20 Home · Elo 1,564
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hellas Verona U20 Away · Elo 1,492
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Roma U20 win
Roma U20 winPick
57.0%
Draw
22.2%
Hellas Verona U20 win
20.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.4%
Under 2.546.6%

How much we know

Roma U20 history59 matches
Hellas Verona U20 history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Roma U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Roma U20 are rated 72 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,492. On rating alone Roma U20 would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.66 goals a game over 59 matches for Roma U20, against 1.54 over 56 for Hellas Verona U20.

  • Roma U20 concede fewer

    Roma U20 concede 1.00 a game, Hellas Verona U20 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Roma U20 matches, against 46% for Hellas Verona U20. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Roma U20
Hellas Verona U20
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1563.9
ELO
1491.9
59
ELO · Matches
56
1563.9
Current Team ELO
1491.9
1491.9
Current Opponent ELO
1563.9
72.08
Current ELO Difference
-72.08
0.60
Expected score
0.40
59
History Matches
56
0.06
Residual Mean
0.00
54.44
Overperformance
49.88
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
1.70
1.20
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.67
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
56
1.80
PPG
1.41
52.5%
Win rate
35.7%
22.0%
Draw rate
33.9%
25.4%
Loss rate
30.4%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
27.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
26
1.59
PPG
1.35
43.8%
Win rate
34.6%
28.1%
Draw rate
30.8%
28.1%
Loss rate
34.6%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
1.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
32
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.66
Goals for per game
1.54
84.7%
Scoring rate
73.2%
54.2%
BTTS rate
53.6%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.62
81.3%
Scoring rate
73.1%
56.3%
BTTS rate
53.8%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
59
History Matches
56
1.66
Goals Mean
1.54
1.22
Goals Std
1.40
84.7%
Scored 1+ rate
73.2%
52.5%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
16.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.4%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.21
64.4%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.31
68.8%
Conceding rate
73.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
56
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.21
0.90
Conceded Std
0.99
30.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
5.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
15.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
15.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
56
0.93
Result entropy
1.00
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.74
7.19
Stability score
0.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
56
30
Lead Matches
17
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
64.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.76
5
Trailing Matches
11
40.0%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.95
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.13
Rest days
75.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
22
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.72
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.56
Portability PPG Range
0.37
64.06
Portability Score
72.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO72.08
PPG0.39
GF0.13
GA-0.21
PPG3.00
PPG0.25
PPG1.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate10.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate11.5%
Scored 2+ rate9.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate10.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score6.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.80
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate8.6%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate3.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.19
Portability Score-8.80
Rest days2.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.69
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Current Team ELO72.08
Current Opponent ELO-72.08
Current ELO Difference144.2
Expected score0.20
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Roma U20

W
Internazionale U200–2Roma U2030 Oct · away
Pick: Internazionale U20 39% · missed
D
Roma U202–2Genoa U2024 Oct · home
Pick: Roma U20 61% · missed
L
Torino U202–1Roma U2017 Oct · away
Pick: Roma U20 49% · missed
W
Atalanta U201–3Roma U2030 Aug · away
Pick: Roma U20 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hellas Verona U20

D
Genoa U201–1Hellas Verona U201 Nov · away
Pick: Genoa U20 41% · missed
D
Hellas Verona U202–2Albinoleffe U2025 Oct · home
Pick: Hellas Verona U20 68% · missed
L
Como U201–0Hellas Verona U2018 Oct · away
Pick: Hellas Verona U20 34% · missed
W
Fiorentina U200–1Hellas Verona U2031 Aug · away
Pick: Fiorentina U20 60% · missed
L
Hellas Verona U200–1Cesena U2024 Aug · home
Pick: Hellas Verona U20 41% · missed

About this match

Roma U20 and Hellas Verona U20 meet in Campionato Primavera - 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Roma U20 win 57.0%, draw 22.2%, Hellas Verona U20 win 20.9%. The pick is Roma U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.4%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.