ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 1 Italy Round 10 2026

Milan U20 vs Albinoleffe U20

Milan U20 Home · Elo 1,508
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Albinoleffe U20 Away · Elo 1,488
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Milan U20 win
Milan U20 winPick
72.9%
Draw
12.4%
Albinoleffe U20 win
14.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes39.7%
No60.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.1%
Under 2.537.9%

How much we know

Milan U20 history60 matches
Albinoleffe U20 history1 match
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (72.9%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Milan U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,508 against 1,488. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Milan U20 score far more

    1.37 goals a game over 60 matches for Milan U20, against 0.00 over 1 for Albinoleffe U20.

  • Milan U20 concede fewer

    Milan U20 concede 1.33 a game, Albinoleffe U20 2.00.

  • Milan U20 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Milan U20 matches, against 0% for Albinoleffe U20. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Milan U20
Albinoleffe U20
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.8
ELO
1488.2
60
ELO · Matches
1
1507.8
Current Team ELO
1488.2
1488.2
Current Opponent ELO
1507.8
19.58
Current ELO Difference
-19.58
0.53
Expected score
0.47
60
History Matches
1
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.50
50.53
Overperformance
47.63
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.50
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
1
1.60
PPG
0.00
1.80
Goals for per game
0.00
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
1
1.50
PPG
0.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.00
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
0.98
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
1
1.30
PPG
0.00
31.7%
Win rate
0.0%
35.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
0
1.43
PPG
—
36.7%
Win rate
—
33.3%
Draw rate
—
30.0%
Loss rate
—
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
—
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
—
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
30
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
0.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
61.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.60
Goals for per game
—
76.7%
Scoring rate
—
66.7%
BTTS rate
—
3.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
60
History Matches
1
1.37
Goals Mean
0.00
1.24
Goals Std
—
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
0.0%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
2.00
83.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.30
Goals against per game
—
86.7%
Conceding rate
—
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
1
1.33
Conceded Mean
2.00
0.99
Conceded Std
—
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
—
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
—
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
—
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
—
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
1
1.00
Result entropy
0.00
1.65
Goal Difference Std
—
0.08
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
1
17
Lead Matches
0
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.76
Lead Points Retention
—
21
Trailing Matches
1
19.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.00
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.71
Rest days
76.80
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
39
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
18
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
5
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.05
Portability PPG Std
—
0.10
Portability PPG Range
—
90.96
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
1
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals StdVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO19.58
PPG1.30
GF1.37
GA-0.67
PPG3.00
PPG1.60
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches59
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.75
History Matches30
History Matches59
Goals Mean1.37
Scored 1+ rate75.0%
Scored 2+ rate40.0%
Scored 3+ rate13.3%
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
History Matches59
Conceded Mean-0.67
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.67
Conceded 3+ rate11.7%
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
History Matches59
Result entropy1.00
Stability score-99.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.82
Eligible Matches59
Lead Matches17
Trailing Matches20
Non-loss rate19.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches59
First Half Goals For Mean0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.65
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-1.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches39
Long Rest History Matches18
Current Team ELO19.58
Current Opponent ELO-19.58
Current ELO Difference39.16
Expected score0.06
History Matches59
Residual Mean0.50
Overperformance2.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.63

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Milan U20

W
Monza U200–5Milan U2031 Oct · away
Pick: Milan U20 48% · hit
W
Milan U202–1Catanzaro U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Milan U20 58% · hit
L
Fiorentina U204–2Milan U2024 Oct · away
Pick: Fiorentina U20 49% · hit
W
Milan U202–0Cagliari U2017 Oct · home
Pick: Cagliari U20 39% · missed
D
Cesena U201–1Milan U2030 Aug · away
Pick: Cesena U20 40% · missed

Albinoleffe U20

L
Albinoleffe U200–2Parma U201 Nov · home
Pick: Parma U20 56% · hit
W
Albinoleffe U202–1Avellino U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Avellino U19 50% · missed
D
Hellas Verona U202–2Albinoleffe U2025 Oct · away
Pick: Hellas Verona U20 68% · missed
L
Albinoleffe U200–2Fiorentina U2017 Oct · home
Pick: Fiorentina U20 52% · hit
L
Sassuolo U204–2Albinoleffe U2012 Oct · away
Pick: Sassuolo U20 73% · hit

About this match

Milan U20 and Albinoleffe U20 meet in Campionato Primavera - 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Milan U20 win 72.9%, draw 12.4%, Albinoleffe U20 win 14.6%. The pick is Milan U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.1%. Both teams to score: 39.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.