ScoreProb
Sergipano - 2 Brazil Round 4 2026

Flamengo SE vs Caninde

Flamengo SE Home · Elo 1,451
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Caninde Away · Elo 1,501
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Flamengo SE win
Flamengo SE winPick
43.6%
Draw
24.8%
Caninde win
31.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.2%
No48.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%

How much we know

Flamengo SE history9 matches
Caninde history7 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Flamengo SE are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Caninde are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,501 against 1,451. On rating alone Caninde would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Caninde score far more

    0.89 goals a game over 9 matches for Flamengo SE, against 1.43 over 7 for Caninde.

  • Defences are close

    Flamengo SE concede 1.78 a game, Caninde 1.86.

  • Caninde games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Flamengo SE matches, against 71% for Caninde. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 1 Nov 2025 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Flamengo SE
Caninde@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1451.2
ELO
1501.0
9
ELO · Matches
7
1451.2
Current Team ELO
1501.0
1501.0
Current Opponent ELO
1451.2
-49.78
Current ELO Difference
49.78
0.43
Expected score
0.57
9
History Matches
7
-0.26
Residual Mean
-0.01
41.92
Overperformance
49.84
-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.40
0.40
Goals for per game
1.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
9
Matches
7
0.67
PPG
1.43
0.89
Goals for per game
1.43
1.78
Goals against per game
1.86
22.2%
Win rate
42.9%
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.43
0.99
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.78
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.86
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.88
0.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.91
2.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.44
Overall performance9 signals
90
9
Matches
7
0.67
PPG
1.43
22.2%
Win rate
42.9%
0.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
77.8%
Loss rate
42.9%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
5
Matches
4
1.20
PPG
0.75
40.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.69
5
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.89
Goals for per game
1.43
55.6%
Scoring rate
71.4%
33.3%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
60.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
9
History Matches
7
0.89
Goals Mean
1.43
0.99
Goals Std
1.18
55.6%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
22.2%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.78
Goals against per game
1.86
77.8%
Conceding rate
57.1%
1.40
Goals against per game
3.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
9
History Matches
7
1.78
Conceded Mean
1.86
1.40
Conceded Std
1.88
55.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
42.9%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
9
History Matches
7
0.48
Result entropy
0.91
2.08
Goal Difference Std
2.44
51.78
Stability score
8.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
4
1
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
2
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
4
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
371.2
Rest days
371.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
5
Normal Rest History Matches
2
0.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.50
2
Long Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
9
Clean History Matches
7
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-49.78
PPG-0.76
GF-0.54
GA-0.08
PPG0.45
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.76
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate15.9%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate15.0%
Failed-to-score rate15.0%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.18
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.49
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.43
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score43.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.36
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.67
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Current Team ELO-49.78
Current Opponent ELO49.78
Current ELO Difference-99.57
Expected score-0.14
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.25
Overperformance-7.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Flamengo SE

L
Flamengo SE1–2Olímpico SE3 Nov · home
Pick: Olímpico SE 45% · hit
W
Socorrense2–3Flamengo SE31 Oct · away
Pick: Socorrense 40% · missed
D
Flamengo SE1–1Carmópolis28 Oct · home
Pick: Flamengo SE 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Caninde

L
Carmópolis3–0Caninde3 Nov · away
Pick: Draw 34% · missed
D
Caninde3–3Olímpico SE31 Oct · home
Pick: Olímpico SE 46% · missed
W
América de Pedrinhas1–6Caninde28 Oct · away
Pick: América de Pedrinhas 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Flamengo SE and Caninde meet in Sergipano - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Flamengo SE win 43.6%, draw 24.8%, Caninde win 31.6%. The pick is Flamengo SE win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.4%. Both teams to score: 51.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.