ScoreProb
Sergipano - 2 Brazil Round 4 2026

Olímpico SE vs América de Pedrinhas

Olímpico SE Home · Elo 1,534
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
América de Pedrinhas Away · Elo 1,484
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Olímpico SE win
Olímpico SE winPick
53.5%
Draw
29.1%
América de Pedrinhas win
17.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.8%
No55.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.0%
Under 2.551.0%

How much we know

Olímpico SE history7 matches
América de Pedrinhas history8 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Olímpico SE are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Olímpico SE are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,534 against 1,484. On rating alone Olímpico SE would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Olímpico SE score far more

    1.71 goals a game over 7 matches for Olímpico SE, against 1.00 over 8 for América de Pedrinhas.

  • Olímpico SE concede fewer

    Olímpico SE concede 0.57 a game, América de Pedrinhas 1.88.

  • América de Pedrinhas games more often go over 2.5 goals

    14% of Olímpico SE matches, against 50% for América de Pedrinhas. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 2 Nov 2025 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Olímpico SE
América de Pedrinhas@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1534.4
ELO
1484.3
7
ELO · Matches
8
1534.4
Current Team ELO
1484.3
1484.3
Current Opponent ELO
1534.4
50.13
Current ELO Difference
-50.13
0.57
Expected score
0.43
7
History Matches
8
0.26
Residual Mean
-0.12
56.68
Overperformance
46.55
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
0.60
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
7
Matches
8
2.29
PPG
1.00
1.71
Goals for per game
1.00
0.57
Goals against per game
1.88
71.4%
Win rate
25.0%
1.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.16
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.88
0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.95
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
7
Matches
8
2.29
PPG
1.00
71.4%
Win rate
25.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
14.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
14.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
5
2.50
PPG
0.80
75.0%
Win rate
20.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
4
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.71
Goals for per game
1.00
85.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
28.6%
BTTS rate
37.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
7
History Matches
8
1.71
Goals Mean
1.00
1.16
Goals Std
1.12
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
57.1%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.57
Goals against per game
1.88
42.9%
Conceding rate
87.5%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
7
History Matches
8
0.57
Conceded Mean
1.88
0.73
Conceded Std
1.27
14.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.5%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
7
History Matches
8
0.72
Result entropy
0.95
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.90
27.52
Stability score
5.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
5
1
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
2
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
5
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
1.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
378.0
Rest days
370.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
4
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
2
Long Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
7
Clean History Matches
8
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO50.13
PPG1.29
GF0.71
GA-1.30
PPG1.70
PPG1.60
PPG1.29
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate44.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate30.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.60
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.71
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate35.7%
Scored 2+ rate19.6%
Scored 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.71
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-1.30
Conceded Std-0.54
Clean-sheet rate44.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.36
Conceded 3+ rate-0.38
Venue Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.54
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.22
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score22.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-2
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.93
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days8.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.75
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.75
Current Team ELO50.13
Current Opponent ELO-50.13
Current ELO Difference100.3
Expected score0.14
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.38
Overperformance10.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.38

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Olímpico SE

W
Flamengo SE1–2Olímpico SE3 Nov · away
Pick: Olímpico SE 45% · hit
D
Caninde3–3Olímpico SE31 Oct · away
Pick: Olímpico SE 46% · missed
L
Olímpico SE1–2Socorrense28 Oct · home
Pick: Olímpico SE 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

América de Pedrinhas

L
América de Pedrinhas0–3Socorrense3 Nov · home
Pick: América de Pedrinhas 54% · missed
L
Carmópolis8–0América de Pedrinhas31 Oct · away
Pick: Carmópolis 37% · hit
L
América de Pedrinhas1–6Caninde28 Oct · home
Pick: América de Pedrinhas 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Olímpico SE and América de Pedrinhas meet in Sergipano - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Olímpico SE win 53.5%, draw 29.1%, América de Pedrinhas win 17.4%. The pick is Olímpico SE win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.0%. Both teams to score: 44.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.