ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale

Fleetwood Town Home · Elo 1,545
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rochdale Away · Elo 1,605
Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rochdale win
Fleetwood Town win
25.0%
Draw
27.9%
Rochdale winPick
47.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.2%
Under 2.546.8%

How much we know

Fleetwood Town history87 matches
Rochdale history94 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Rochdale are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rochdale are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,605 against 1,545. On rating alone Rochdale would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Rochdale score more

    1.41 goals a game over 87 matches for Fleetwood Town, against 1.68 over 94 for Rochdale.

  • Defences are close

    Fleetwood Town concede 1.23 a game, Rochdale 1.12.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Fleetwood Town matches, against 55% for Rochdale. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fleetwood Town
Rochdale
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1545.0
ELO
1604.7
87
ELO · Matches
94
1545.0
Current Team ELO
1604.7
1604.7
Current Opponent ELO
1545.0
-59.70
Current ELO Difference
59.70
0.41
Expected score
0.59
87
History Matches
94
0.02
Residual Mean
0.06
51.77
Overperformance
55.06
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.36
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.20
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
87
Matches
94
1.46
PPG
1.85
37.9%
Win rate
53.2%
32.2%
Draw rate
25.5%
29.9%
Loss rate
21.3%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
79.8%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.3%
28.7%
Over 3.5 rate
30.9%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
43
1.64
PPG
1.72
40.5%
Win rate
46.5%
42.9%
Draw rate
32.6%
16.7%
Loss rate
20.9%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
44.2%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.9%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
42
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.41
Goals for per game
1.68
75.9%
Scoring rate
84.0%
57.5%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.35
81.0%
Scoring rate
79.1%
64.3%
BTTS rate
55.8%
87
History Matches
94
1.41
Goals Mean
1.68
1.19
Goals Std
1.14
75.9%
Scored 1+ rate
84.0%
41.4%
Scored 2+ rate
55.3%
14.9%
Scored 3+ rate
20.2%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.23
Goals against per game
1.12
72.4%
Conceding rate
66.0%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.05
69.0%
Conceding rate
69.8%
87
History Matches
94
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.12
1.09
Conceded Std
1.08
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.9%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.6%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
87
History Matches
94
1.00
Result entropy
0.92
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.64
0.46
Stability score
7.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
87
Eligible Matches
94
25
Lead Matches
37
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.4%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.86
20
Trailing Matches
19
40.0%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
87
Halftime Coverage Matches
94
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
11
0.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.64
73
Normal Rest History Matches
72
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.85
9
Long Rest History Matches
10
2.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
11
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.65
0.71
Portability PPG Range
1.83
64.97
Portability Score
43.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
87
Clean History Matches
94
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-59.70
PPG-0.39
GF-0.27
GA0.11
PPG-0.08
PPG1.80
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate8.2%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.54
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate3.6%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-7.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.61
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate5.6%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate13.7%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-1.12
Portability Score21.54
Rest days-3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.39
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO-59.70
Current Opponent ELO59.70
Current ELO Difference-119.4
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.61

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fleetwood Town

W
Fleetwood Town3–1Bristol Rovers31 Oct · home
Pick: Fleetwood Town 38% · hit
L
Exeter City2–1Fleetwood Town24 Oct · away
Pick: Fleetwood Town 37% · missed
L
Cheltenham4–2Fleetwood Town20 Oct · away
Pick: Fleetwood Town 40% · missed
W
Fleetwood Town2–0Rotherham17 Oct · home
Pick: Fleetwood Town 46% · hit
W
Fleetwood Town4–1Barnsley6 Oct · home
Pick: Fleetwood Town 42% · hit

Rochdale

L
Rochdale1–4Doncaster3 Nov · home
Pick: Rochdale 43% · missed
L
Port Vale4–2Rochdale31 Oct · away
Pick: Port Vale 38% · hit
L
Rochdale0–5Accrington ST24 Oct · home
Pick: Rochdale 45% · missed
D
Rochdale2–2Grimsby20 Oct · home
Pick: Grimsby 38% · missed
L
Crewe3–2Rochdale17 Oct · away
Pick: Crewe 45% · hit

About this match

Fleetwood Town and Rochdale meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Fleetwood Town win 25.0%, draw 27.9%, Rochdale win 47.2%. The pick is Rochdale win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.2%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.