ScoreProb
Oberliga - Hessen Germany Hessen - 17 2026

Friedberg vs Vfb Marburg

Friedberg Home · Elo 1,519
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vfb Marburg Away · Elo 1,517
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Friedberg win
Friedberg winPick
39.8%
Draw
25.7%
Vfb Marburg win
34.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.0%
No39.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.3%
Under 2.541.7%

How much we know

Friedberg history58 matches
Vfb Marburg history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Friedberg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,519 against 1,517. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Friedberg score more

    1.81 goals a game over 58 matches for Friedberg, against 1.35 over 55 for Vfb Marburg.

  • Defences are close

    Friedberg concede 1.69 a game, Vfb Marburg 1.62.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Friedberg matches, against 53% for Vfb Marburg. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Friedberg
Vfb Marburg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.9
ELO
1516.8
58
ELO · Matches
55
1518.9
Current Team ELO
1516.8
1516.8
Current Opponent ELO
1518.9
2.12
Current ELO Difference
-2.12
0.50
Expected score
0.50
58
History Matches
55
0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
51.14
Overperformance
51.61
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.36
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.30
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
55
1.50
PPG
1.35
41.4%
Win rate
38.2%
25.9%
Draw rate
20.0%
32.8%
Loss rate
41.8%
84.5%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.7%
39.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
26
1.52
PPG
1.31
44.8%
Win rate
38.5%
17.2%
Draw rate
15.4%
37.9%
Loss rate
46.2%
93.1%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
29
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.81
Goals for per game
1.35
81.0%
Scoring rate
72.7%
60.3%
BTTS rate
56.4%
2.07
Goals for per game
1.23
86.2%
Scoring rate
73.1%
65.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
58
History Matches
55
1.81
Goals Mean
1.35
1.54
Goals Std
1.19
81.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
38.2%
27.6%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.69
Goals against per game
1.62
77.6%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.76
Goals against per game
1.73
79.3%
Conceding rate
73.1%
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
58
History Matches
55
1.69
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.53
Conceded Std
1.36
41.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
25.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.6%
1.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
55
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
2.18
Goal Difference Std
1.80
1.65
Stability score
4.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
55
23
Lead Matches
12
65.2%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.75
15
Trailing Matches
19
33.3%
Non-loss rate
42.1%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
21.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
23
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.49
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
2.20
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.48
0.49
Portability PPG Range
1.13
71.13
Portability Score
51.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO2.12
PPG0.15
GF0.46
GA0.07
PPG-0.60
PPG0.21
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.46
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate8.3%
Scored 2+ rate11.8%
Scored 3+ rate11.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.84
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Conceded 2+ rate1.4%
Conceded 3+ rate2.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.46
History Matches3
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score-2.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.64
Portability Score20.02
Rest days-1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO2.12
Current Opponent ELO-2.12
Current ELO Difference4.25
Expected score0.01
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Friedberg

L
1960 Hanau3–1Friedberg1 Nov · away
Pick: 1960 Hanau 39% · hit
W
Friedberg5–1Kassel 224 Oct · home
Pick: Friedberg 62% · hit
W
Hünfelder SV0–2Friedberg17 Oct · away
Pick: Hünfelder SV 49% · missed
W
Baunatal2–3Friedberg29 Aug · away
Pick: Friedberg 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vfb Marburg

L
Vfb Marburg0–1Unter-Flockenbach31 Oct · home
Pick: Vfb Marburg 48% · missed
L
Darmstadt 98 II3–0Vfb Marburg24 Oct · away
Pick: Darmstadt 98 II 53% · hit
D
Vfb Marburg2–2Baunatal17 Oct · home
Pick: Vfb Marburg 54% · missed
W
FC Gießen1–3Vfb Marburg29 Aug · away
Pick: Vfb Marburg 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Friedberg and Vfb Marburg meet in Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Friedberg win 39.8%, draw 25.7%, Vfb Marburg win 34.5%. The pick is Friedberg win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.3%. Both teams to score: 61.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.