ScoreProb
Oberliga - Hessen Germany Hessen - 17 2026

Unter-Flockenbach vs Fernwald

Unter-Flockenbach Home · Elo 1,495
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fernwald Away · Elo 1,503
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Unter-Flockenbach win
Unter-Flockenbach winPick
54.0%
Draw
21.8%
Fernwald win
24.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.7%
No40.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.9%
Under 2.532.1%

How much we know

Unter-Flockenbach history19 matches
Fernwald history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Unter-Flockenbach are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,495 against 1,503. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Unter-Flockenbach score more

    2.05 goals a game over 19 matches for Unter-Flockenbach, against 1.70 over 54 for Fernwald.

  • Fernwald concede fewer

    Unter-Flockenbach concede 2.42 a game, Fernwald 1.39.

  • Unter-Flockenbach games more often go over 2.5 goals

    84% of Unter-Flockenbach matches, against 50% for Fernwald. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Unter-Flockenbach
Fernwald
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.3
ELO
1502.9
19
ELO · Matches
54
1495.3
Current Team ELO
1502.9
1502.9
Current Opponent ELO
1495.3
-7.60
Current ELO Difference
7.60
0.49
Expected score
0.51
19
History Matches
54
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
48.25
Overperformance
50.40
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.60
3.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.00
2.50
Goals for per game
1.00
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.57
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.63
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
3.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
19
Matches
54
1.21
PPG
1.44
31.6%
Win rate
38.9%
26.3%
Draw rate
27.8%
42.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.7%
84.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
73.7%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
2.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
7
Matches
26
2.14
PPG
1.35
57.1%
Win rate
38.5%
42.9%
Draw rate
19.2%
0.0%
Loss rate
42.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
7
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.05
Goals for per game
1.70
89.5%
Scoring rate
88.9%
78.9%
BTTS rate
63.0%
2.29
Goals for per game
1.65
85.7%
Scoring rate
92.3%
57.1%
BTTS rate
65.4%
3.60
Goals for per game
1.40
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
19
History Matches
54
2.05
Goals Mean
1.70
1.36
Goals Std
1.52
89.5%
Scored 1+ rate
88.9%
68.4%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
26.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.8%
2.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.42
Goals against per game
1.39
84.2%
Conceding rate
70.4%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.42
57.1%
Conceding rate
73.1%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
19
History Matches
54
2.42
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.84
Conceded Std
1.30
57.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.7%
47.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.5%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
19
History Matches
54
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
2.56
Goal Difference Std
2.13
1.74
Stability score
0.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
53
4
Lead Matches
25
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.69
9
Trailing Matches
12
22.2%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.98
1.26
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
1.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
1.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
75.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
10
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
7
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.40
Current Competition PPG
1.60
2.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.81
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.61
Portability PPG Range
0.87
38.25
Portability Score
58.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
19
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-7.60
PPG-0.23
GF0.35
GA1.03
PPG0.80
PPG0.80
PPG0.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-35
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches-35
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate0.6%
Scored 2+ rate24.0%
Scored 3+ rate11.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.93
History Matches-35
Conceded Mean1.03
Conceded Std0.55
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate28.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-35
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score0.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.84
Eligible Matches-34
Lead Matches-21
Lead Win Rate11.0%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-34
First Half Goals For Mean-0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.45
Portability PPG Range0.75
Portability Score-20.31
Rest days1.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.11
Long Rest History Matches-13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.89
Current Team ELO-7.60
Current Opponent ELO7.60
Current ELO Difference-15.19
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-35
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Unter-Flockenbach

W
Vfb Marburg0–1Unter-Flockenbach31 Oct · away
Pick: Vfb Marburg 48% · missed
W
Unter-Flockenbach3–01960 Hanau24 Oct · home
Pick: Unter-Flockenbach 53% · hit
D
Kassel 22–2Unter-Flockenbach18 Oct · away
Pick: Unter-Flockenbach 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fernwald

W
Fernwald1–0Darmstadt 98 II31 Oct · home
Pick: Darmstadt 98 II 55% · missed
W
Baunatal0–2Fernwald24 Oct · away
Pick: Fernwald 39% · hit
D
Fernwald2–2Hadamar17 Oct · home
Pick: Hadamar 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Unter-Flockenbach and Fernwald meet in Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Unter-Flockenbach win 54.0%, draw 21.8%, Fernwald win 24.1%. The pick is Unter-Flockenbach win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.9%. Both teams to score: 59.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.