ScoreProb
Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Germany Baden-Württemberg - 15 2026

FV Ravensburg vs Backnang

FV Ravensburg Home · Elo 1,506
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Backnang Away · Elo 1,534
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Backnang win
FV Ravensburg win
29.7%
Draw
19.8%
Backnang winPick
50.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.9%
No37.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.6%
Under 2.532.4%

How much we know

FV Ravensburg history55 matches
Backnang history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Backnang are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Backnang are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,534 against 1,506. On rating alone Backnang would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Backnang score more

    1.53 goals a game over 55 matches for FV Ravensburg, against 2.02 over 55 for Backnang.

  • FV Ravensburg concede fewer

    FV Ravensburg concede 1.58 a game, Backnang 1.84.

  • Backnang games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of FV Ravensburg matches, against 78% for Backnang. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FV Ravensburg
Backnang
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1506.1
ELO
1533.7
55
ELO · Matches
55
1506.1
Current Team ELO
1533.7
1533.7
Current Opponent ELO
1506.1
-27.59
Current ELO Difference
27.59
0.46
Expected score
0.54
55
History Matches
55
0.00
Residual Mean
0.03
50.28
Overperformance
52.07
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.40
0.60
Goals for per game
2.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.10
1.40
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.85
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
55
1.35
PPG
1.58
34.5%
Win rate
47.3%
30.9%
Draw rate
16.4%
34.5%
Loss rate
36.4%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
89.1%
58.2%
Over 2.5 rate
78.2%
43.6%
Over 3.5 rate
52.7%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
28
1.44
PPG
1.46
37.0%
Win rate
39.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
29.6%
Loss rate
32.1%
92.6%
Over 1.5 rate
96.4%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
27
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
2.02
72.7%
Scoring rate
92.7%
56.4%
BTTS rate
78.2%
1.85
Goals for per game
2.00
85.2%
Scoring rate
92.9%
66.7%
BTTS rate
85.7%
0.33
Goals for per game
3.67
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
55
1.53
Goals Mean
2.02
1.36
Goals Std
1.29
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
92.7%
43.6%
Scored 2+ rate
58.2%
23.6%
Scored 3+ rate
29.1%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.58
Goals against per game
1.84
78.2%
Conceding rate
85.5%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.86
81.5%
Conceding rate
92.9%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
55
1.58
Conceded Mean
1.84
1.29
Conceded Std
1.35
43.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.7%
25.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.3%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.5%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
7.3%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.5%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
7.3%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
55
1.00
Result entropy
0.93
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.95
0.12
Stability score
7.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
54
19
Lead Matches
23
52.6%
Lead Win Rate
78.3%
0.65
Lead Points Retention
0.81
17
Trailing Matches
12
41.2%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.11
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.85
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
22
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.64
1.64
Portability PPG Range
1.76
45.00
Portability Score
43.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-27.59
PPG-0.24
GF-0.49
GA-0.25
PPG-2.33
PPG-0.02
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate20.0%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.41
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches0
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-7.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.27
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.26
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate16.2%
Trailing Win Rate17.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score1.23
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-27.59
Current Opponent ELO27.59
Current ELO Difference-55.19
Expected score-0.08
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FV Ravensburg

W
Normannia Gmünd1–3FV Ravensburg31 Oct · away
Pick: FV Ravensburg 47% · hit
L
FV Ravensburg0–1Reutlingen24 Oct · home
Pick: Reutlingen 44% · hit
W
FC 08 Villingen0–5FV Ravensburg16 Oct · away
Pick: FC 08 Villingen 54% · missed
W
FV Ravensburg3–0Essingen29 Aug · home
Pick: Essingen 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Backnang

W
Backnang4–2Türkspor Neckarsulm31 Oct · home
Pick: Backnang 69% · hit
W
Essingen3–5Backnang24 Oct · away
Pick: Backnang 44% · hit
W
Backnang3–1Young Boys Reutlingen17 Oct · home
Pick: Backnang 66% · hit
W
FC 08 Villingen2–4Backnang29 Aug · away
Pick: Backnang 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FV Ravensburg and Backnang meet in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FV Ravensburg win 29.7%, draw 19.8%, Backnang win 50.4%. The pick is Backnang win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.6%. Both teams to score: 62.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.