ScoreProb
Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Germany Baden-Württemberg - 15 2026

Essingen vs FC Holzhausen

Essingen Home · Elo 1,547
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Holzhausen Away · Elo 1,497
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Essingen win
Essingen winPick
63.7%
Draw
15.2%
FC Holzhausen win
21.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.1%
No36.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.0%
Under 2.524.0%

How much we know

Essingen history57 matches
FC Holzhausen history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Essingen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Essingen are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,547 against 1,497. On rating alone Essingen would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • FC Holzhausen score more

    1.79 goals a game over 57 matches for Essingen, against 2.33 over 3 for FC Holzhausen.

  • Essingen concede fewer

    Essingen concede 1.68 a game, FC Holzhausen 2.67.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Essingen matches, against 67% for FC Holzhausen. The model puts this match at 76% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Essingen
FC Holzhausen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1547.2
ELO
1497.4
57
ELO · Matches
3
1547.2
Current Team ELO
1497.4
1497.4
Current Opponent ELO
1547.2
49.79
Current ELO Difference
-49.79
0.57
Expected score
0.43
57
History Matches
3
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
53.09
Overperformance
49.83
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.33
2.80
Goals for per game
2.33
1.40
Goals against per game
2.67
60.0%
Win rate
33.3%
10
Matches
3
1.20
PPG
1.33
1.80
Goals for per game
2.33
2.20
Goals against per game
2.67
30.0%
Win rate
33.3%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.33
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.89
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.67
1.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
1.00
2.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
3
1.60
PPG
1.33
43.9%
Win rate
33.3%
28.1%
Draw rate
33.3%
28.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
87.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
64.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
1
1.72
PPG
3.00
51.7%
Win rate
100.0%
17.2%
Draw rate
0.0%
31.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
89.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
72.4%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
29
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.79
Goals for per game
2.33
84.2%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
5.00
79.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
58.6%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
3
1.79
Goals Mean
2.33
1.51
Goals Std
1.89
84.2%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
45.6%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
24.6%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
5.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
2.67
78.9%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.69
Goals against per game
4.00
72.4%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
3
1.68
Conceded Mean
2.67
1.54
Conceded Std
1.25
47.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
17.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
66.7%
1.69
Venue Conceded Mean
4.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
3
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
2.36
Goal Difference Std
1.25
2.17
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
3
16
Lead Matches
1
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
1.00
25
Trailing Matches
1
48.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
16.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
1.67
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.67
1.19
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
28
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
27
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
5
Competition Season Count
1
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.24
Portability PPG Std
—
0.60
Portability PPG Range
—
67.20
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO49.79
PPG0.26
GF-0.54
GA-0.98
PPG0.00
PPG-1.28
PPG0.67
PPG-0.13
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches54
Clean-sheet rate21.1%
Failed-to-score rate15.8%
History Matches28
Clean-sheet rate27.6%
Failed-to-score rate20.7%
History Matches54
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std-0.38
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate12.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches54
Conceded Mean-0.98
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate21.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.49
Venue Conceded Mean-2.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.59
History Matches54
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std1.11
Stability score2.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.48
Eligible Matches54
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate-0.38
Lead Points Retention-0.25
Trailing Matches24
Non-loss rate48.0%
Trailing Win Rate16.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches54
First Half Goals For Mean-1.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches27
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.68
Long Rest History Matches26
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.37
Current Team ELO49.79
Current Opponent ELO-49.79
Current ELO Difference99.57
Expected score0.14
History Matches54
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Essingen

D
Oberachern0–0Essingen31 Oct · away
Pick: Oberachern 50% · missed
L
Essingen3–5Backnang24 Oct · home
Pick: Backnang 44% · hit
W
Normannia Gmünd1–3Essingen17 Oct · away
Pick: Essingen 52% · hit
L
FV Ravensburg3–0Essingen29 Aug · away
Pick: Essingen 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Holzhausen

D
FC Holzhausen2–2Young Boys Reutlingen31 Oct · home
Pick: Young Boys Reutlingen 52% · missed
L
TSV Singen3–2FC Holzhausen23 Oct · away
Pick: TSV Singen 54% · hit
L
FC Holzhausen0–3Bahlinger SC17 Oct · home
Pick: Bahlinger SC 47% · hit
W
Teningen1–2FC Holzhausen29 Aug · away
Pick: FC Holzhausen 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Essingen and FC Holzhausen meet in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Essingen win 63.7%, draw 15.2%, FC Holzhausen win 21.0%. The pick is Essingen win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.0%. Both teams to score: 63.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.