ScoreProb
Süper Lig Türkiye Round 11 2026

Galatasaray vs Amed

Galatasaray Home · Elo 1,634
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Amed Away · Elo 1,598
Rams Park, Istanbul Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Galatasaray win
Galatasaray winPick
74.6%
Draw
13.2%
Amed win
12.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.2%
Under 2.537.8%

How much we know

Galatasaray history87 matches
Amed history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (74.6%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Galatasaray are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Galatasaray are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,634 against 1,598. On rating alone Galatasaray would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Galatasaray score more

    2.09 goals a game over 87 matches for Galatasaray, against 1.86 over 57 for Amed.

  • Defences are close

    Galatasaray concede 1.10 a game, Amed 1.11.

  • Galatasaray games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Galatasaray matches, against 56% for Amed. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Galatasaray
Amed
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1634.1
ELO
1598.1
87
ELO · Matches
57
1634.1
Current Team ELO
1598.1
1598.1
Current Opponent ELO
1634.1
35.93
Current ELO Difference
-35.93
0.55
Expected score
0.45
87
History Matches
57
0.08
Residual Mean
0.08
56.18
Overperformance
55.84
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
2.10
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.79
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
87
Matches
57
2.05
PPG
1.81
63.2%
Win rate
50.9%
14.9%
Draw rate
28.1%
21.8%
Loss rate
21.1%
85.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.1%
40.2%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
30
2.11
PPG
1.30
62.2%
Win rate
33.3%
24.4%
Draw rate
30.0%
13.3%
Loss rate
36.7%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
64.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
45
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.09
Goals for per game
1.86
82.8%
Scoring rate
78.9%
54.0%
BTTS rate
49.1%
2.18
Goals for per game
1.43
82.2%
Scoring rate
63.3%
55.6%
BTTS rate
43.3%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
87
History Matches
57
2.09
Goals Mean
1.86
1.44
Goals Std
1.72
82.8%
Scored 1+ rate
78.9%
62.1%
Scored 2+ rate
50.9%
42.5%
Scored 3+ rate
24.6%
2.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.10
Goals against per game
1.11
67.8%
Conceding rate
64.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.43
66.7%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
87
History Matches
57
1.10
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.08
Conceded Std
1.04
27.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
9.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.5%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
87
History Matches
57
0.82
Result entropy
0.94
2.00
Goal Difference Std
2.19
17.51
Stability score
6.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
87
Eligible Matches
57
45
Lead Matches
23
93.3%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.88
19
Trailing Matches
13
36.8%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
21.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
87
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.95
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
74.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.13
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
65
Normal Rest History Matches
35
2.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.91
13
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
10
Competition Season Count
4
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.84
Portability PPG Std
0.16
2.27
Portability PPG Range
0.32
37.42
Portability Score
75.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
87
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO35.93
PPG0.24
GF0.23
GA0.00
PPG0.50
PPG0.81
PPG0.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches30
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches30
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std-0.28
Scored 1+ rate3.8%
Scored 2+ rate11.2%
Scored 3+ rate18.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.74
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches30
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches30
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score11.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches30
Lead Matches22
Lead Win Rate10.7%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate13.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches30
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count6
Eligible Competition Season Count6
Portability PPG Std0.68
Portability PPG Range1.94
Portability Score-38.21
Rest days3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Short Rest Points Per Match2.13
Normal Rest History Matches30
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO35.93
Current Opponent ELO-35.93
Current ELO Difference71.86
Expected score0.10
History Matches30
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Galatasaray

W
Galatasaray2–0VfB Stuttgart3 Nov · home
Pick: Galatasaray 46% · hit
W
Konyaspor0–4Galatasaray30 Oct · away
Pick: Galatasaray 61% · hit
W
Galatasaray2–1Fenerbahçe26 Oct · home
Pick: Galatasaray 42% · hit
W
Lille2–4Galatasaray21 Oct · away
Pick: Galatasaray 43% · hit
W
Gençlerbirliği S.K.0–1Galatasaray17 Oct · away
Pick: Galatasaray 54% · hit

Amed

W
Amed5–1Eyüpspor1 Nov · home
Pick: Amed 61% · hit
W
Samsunspor1–2Amed24 Oct · away
Pick: Samsunspor 57% · missed
W
Amed1–0Konyaspor17 Oct · home
Pick: Amed 53% · hit
W
Amed2–1Trabzonspor31 Aug · home
Pick: Amed 37% · hit
L
Kocaelispor2–0Amed24 Aug · away
Pick: Amed 43% · missed

About this match

Galatasaray and Amed meet in Süper Lig on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Rams Park, Istanbul. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Galatasaray win 74.6%, draw 13.2%, Amed win 12.2%. The pick is Galatasaray win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.2%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.