ScoreProb
Süper Lig Türkiye Round 11 2026

Samsunspor vs Konyaspor

Samsunspor Home · Elo 1,600
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Konyaspor Away · Elo 1,516
Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Samsunspor win
Samsunspor winPick
61.0%
Draw
19.3%
Konyaspor win
19.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.8%
Under 2.541.2%

How much we know

Samsunspor history77 matches
Konyaspor history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Samsunspor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Samsunspor are rated 84 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,600 against 1,516. On rating alone Samsunspor would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.44 goals a game over 77 matches for Samsunspor, against 1.38 over 72 for Konyaspor.

  • Defences are close

    Samsunspor concede 1.29 a game, Konyaspor 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Samsunspor matches, against 56% for Konyaspor. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Samsunspor
Konyaspor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1600.4
ELO
1515.9
77
ELO · Matches
72
1600.4
Current Team ELO
1515.9
1515.9
Current Opponent ELO
1600.4
84.50
Current ELO Difference
-84.50
0.62
Expected score
0.38
77
History Matches
72
0.06
Residual Mean
0.02
54.56
Overperformance
51.51
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.60
1.70
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
72
1.56
PPG
1.43
42.9%
Win rate
41.7%
27.3%
Draw rate
18.1%
29.9%
Loss rate
40.3%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
29.9%
Over 3.5 rate
26.4%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
33
1.74
PPG
1.09
48.6%
Win rate
30.3%
28.6%
Draw rate
18.2%
22.9%
Loss rate
51.5%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
35
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.38
74.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
51.9%
BTTS rate
56.9%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.30
71.4%
Scoring rate
78.8%
45.7%
BTTS rate
69.7%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
77
History Matches
72
1.44
Goals Mean
1.38
1.21
Goals Std
1.14
74.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
45.5%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
18.2%
Scored 3+ rate
15.3%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.33
66.2%
Conceding rate
73.6%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.61
57.1%
Conceding rate
87.9%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
77
History Matches
72
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.15
Conceded Std
1.15
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
72
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.74
1.84
Stability score
5.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
72
27
Lead Matches
20
70.4%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.92
20
Trailing Matches
22
20.0%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.30
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
48
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
9
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.20
Portability PPG Range
1.27
52.94
Portability Score
51.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO84.50
PPG0.13
GF0.07
GA-0.05
PPG2.00
PPG0.65
PPG1.40
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate3.8%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate30.7%
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate8.0%
Scored 3+ rate2.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.51
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Conceded 2+ rate5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches5
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-3.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate1.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.07
Portability Score1.03
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match0.30
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO84.50
Current Opponent ELO-84.50
Current ELO Difference169.0
Expected score0.24
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Samsunspor

L
Başakşehir5–2Samsunspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Başakşehir 37% · hit
L
Samsunspor1–2Amed24 Oct · home
Pick: Samsunspor 57% · missed
L
Kasımpaşa4–1Samsunspor18 Oct · away
Pick: Samsunspor 43% · missed
L
Samsunspor0–2Fenerbahçe30 Aug · home
Pick: Samsunspor 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Konyaspor

L
Konyaspor0–4Galatasaray30 Oct · home
Pick: Galatasaray 61% · hit
W
Konyaspor2–0Gençlerbirliği S.K.25 Oct · home
Pick: Konyaspor 38% · hit
L
Amed1–0Konyaspor17 Oct · away
Pick: Amed 53% · hit
L
Konyaspor1–2Kocaelispor29 Aug · home
Pick: Konyaspor 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Samsunspor and Konyaspor meet in Süper Lig on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Samsunspor win 61.0%, draw 19.3%, Konyaspor win 19.7%. The pick is Samsunspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.8%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.