ScoreProb
Pro League A Uzbekistan Round 26 2026

Gazalkent vs Respublika FA

Gazalkent Home · Elo 1,527
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Respublika FA Away · Elo 1,454
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gazalkent win
Gazalkent winPick
58.6%
Draw
21.3%
Respublika FA win
20.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%

How much we know

Gazalkent history16 matches
Respublika FA history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Gazalkent are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gazalkent are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,527 against 1,454. On rating alone Gazalkent would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Gazalkent score far more

    1.94 goals a game over 16 matches for Gazalkent, against 1.00 over 15 for Respublika FA.

  • Gazalkent concede fewer

    Gazalkent concede 1.25 a game, Respublika FA 1.60.

  • Gazalkent games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Gazalkent matches, against 53% for Respublika FA. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gazalkent
Respublika FA
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1527.0
ELO
1453.6
16
ELO · Matches
15
1527.0
Current Team ELO
1453.6
1453.6
Current Opponent ELO
1527.0
73.41
Current ELO Difference
-73.41
0.60
Expected score
0.40
16
History Matches
15
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.15
53.71
Overperformance
43.59
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
2.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
2.80
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.90
2.20
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
2.09
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.99
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.39
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.53
Overall performance9 signals
90
16
Matches
15
1.69
PPG
0.87
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
18.8%
Draw rate
26.7%
31.3%
Loss rate
53.3%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
7
0.88
PPG
0.71
25.0%
Win rate
14.3%
12.5%
Draw rate
28.6%
62.5%
Loss rate
57.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
8
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.94
Goals for per game
1.00
68.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
53.3%
0.88
Goals for per game
1.14
37.5%
Scoring rate
85.7%
25.0%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.94
Goals for per game
1.00
68.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
53.3%
16
History Matches
15
1.94
Goals Mean
1.00
1.82
Goals Std
1.10
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
62.5%
Scored 2+ rate
13.3%
31.3%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
0.88
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.60
75.0%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.29
75.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.60
75.0%
Conceding rate
73.3%
16
History Matches
15
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.60
0.83
Conceded Std
1.70
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.7%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
62.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
62.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
16
History Matches
15
0.93
Result entropy
0.92
2.23
Goal Difference Std
2.12
6.80
Stability score
8.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
15
4
Lead Matches
4
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
25.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.33
4
Trailing Matches
2
50.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
1.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.27
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
79.79
Rest days
85.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
11
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
4
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
16
Matches
15
1.69
PPG
0.87
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
18.8%
Draw rate
26.7%
31.3%
Loss rate
53.3%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
16
Current Competition Matches
15
1.69
Current Competition PPG
0.87
0.69
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.60
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
16
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO73.41
PPG0.82
GF0.94
GA-0.35
PPG0.82
PPG0.16
PPG1.60
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Failed-to-score rate48.2%
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.94
Goals Std0.72
Scored 1+ rate2.1%
Scored 2+ rate49.2%
Scored 3+ rate17.9%
Venue Goals Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.79
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.88
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate3.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.16
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-1.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.15
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.50
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate50.0%
Trailing Win Rate50.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.58
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.82
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.29
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.55
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.50
Current Team ELO73.41
Current Opponent ELO-73.41
Current ELO Difference146.8
Expected score0.21
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.23
Overperformance10.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gazalkent

L
Aral2–0Gazalkent1 Nov · away
Pick: Aral 66% · hit
D
Metalourg2–2Gazalkent26 Oct · away
Pick: Metalourg 51% · missed
L
Navbahor3–1Gazalkent21 Oct · away
Pick: Navbahor 61% · hit
W
Gazalkent2–1Shortan17 Oct · home
Pick: Gazalkent 47% · hit
W
Jayxun1–2Gazalkent12 Oct · away
Pick: Gazalkent 44% · hit

Respublika FA

D
Respublika FA0–0Shortan1 Nov · home
Pick: Shortan 43% · missed
D
Jayxun2–2Respublika FA25 Oct · away
Pick: Jayxun 52% · missed
L
Respublika FA0–2Pakhtakor II21 Oct · home
Pick: Respublika FA 60% · missed
D
Respublika FA2–2Olimpik-Mobiuz16 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpik-Mobiuz 53% · missed
W
Respublika FA2–1Yaypan8 Oct · home
Pick: Respublika FA 43% · hit

About this match

Gazalkent and Respublika FA meet in Pro League A on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Gazalkent win 58.6%, draw 21.3%, Respublika FA win 20.1%. The pick is Gazalkent win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.