ScoreProb
Pro League A Uzbekistan Round 26 2026

Metalourg vs Aral

Metalourg Home · Elo 1,520
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aral Away · Elo 1,621
Metallurg Stadium, Bekabad Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Aral win
Metalourg win
31.6%
Draw
29.6%
Aral winPick
38.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%
No50.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%

How much we know

Metalourg history15 matches
Aral history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Aral are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Aral are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,621 against 1,520. On rating alone Aral would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Metalourg score more

    2.27 goals a game over 15 matches for Metalourg, against 1.71 over 35 for Aral.

  • Aral concede fewer

    Metalourg concede 0.93 a game, Aral 0.71.

  • Metalourg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Metalourg matches, against 43% for Aral. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Metalourg
Aral
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1520.2
ELO
1621.0
15
ELO · Matches
35
1520.2
Current Team ELO
1621.0
1621.0
Current Opponent ELO
1520.2
-100.8
Current ELO Difference
100.8
0.36
Expected score
0.64
15
History Matches
35
0.07
Residual Mean
0.17
53.15
Overperformance
60.98
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.60
2.00
Goals for per game
2.30
1.10
Goals against per game
0.50
30.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
2.24
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.77
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
15
Matches
35
1.67
PPG
2.23
46.7%
Win rate
68.6%
26.7%
Draw rate
17.1%
26.7%
Loss rate
14.3%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.6%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
17
2.00
PPG
1.59
50.0%
Win rate
41.2%
50.0%
Draw rate
35.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
23.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
2.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
8
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.27
Goals for per game
1.71
80.0%
Scoring rate
82.9%
53.3%
BTTS rate
42.9%
2.75
Goals for per game
1.18
100.0%
Scoring rate
70.6%
62.5%
BTTS rate
47.1%
2.27
Goals for per game
2.13
80.0%
Scoring rate
93.3%
53.3%
BTTS rate
46.7%
15
History Matches
35
2.27
Goals Mean
1.71
2.02
Goals Std
1.23
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.9%
53.3%
Scored 2+ rate
54.3%
40.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
2.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.93
Goals against per game
0.71
73.3%
Conceding rate
51.4%
0.63
Goals against per game
1.00
62.5%
Conceding rate
58.8%
0.93
Goals against per game
0.53
73.3%
Conceding rate
46.7%
15
History Matches
35
0.93
Conceded Mean
0.71
0.77
Conceded Std
0.91
13.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
11.4%
6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.7%
0.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
48.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
6.7%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
48.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
48.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
15
History Matches
35
0.97
Result entropy
0.76
2.55
Goal Difference Std
1.55
3.46
Stability score
23.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
15
Eligible Matches
34
6
Lead Matches
16
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
93.8%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.96
3
Trailing Matches
3
33.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
15
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.18
1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.79
Rest days
85.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
11
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.44
3
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.87
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
15
1.67
PPG
2.60
46.7%
Win rate
80.0%
26.7%
Draw rate
20.0%
26.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.14
15
Current Competition Matches
15
1.67
Current Competition PPG
2.60
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.60
1
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.22
—
Portability PPG Range
0.43
—
Portability Score
69.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
15
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-100.8
PPG-0.56
GF0.55
GA0.22
PPG-0.93
PPG0.41
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate2.9%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches-20
Goals Mean0.55
Goals Std0.78
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate17.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.82
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate1.9%
Conceded 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches-20
Result entropy0.20
Goal Difference Std1.00
Stability score-20.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.52
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.93
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.27
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.81
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Current Team ELO-100.8
Current Opponent ELO100.8
Current ELO Difference-201.7
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-20
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Metalourg

D
Lochin1–1Metalourg1 Nov · away
Pick: Metalourg 38% · missed
D
Metalourg2–2Gazalkent26 Oct · home
Pick: Metalourg 51% · missed
W
FarDu0–1Metalourg19 Oct · away
Pick: FarDu 39% · missed
D
Metalourg1–1Shortan13 Oct · home
Pick: Metalourg 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Aral

W
Aral2–0Gazalkent1 Nov · home
Pick: Aral 66% · hit
L
Shortan1–0Aral27 Oct · away
Pick: Aral 44% · missed
W
Aral2–0Jayxun18 Oct · home
Pick: Aral 80% · hit
W
Pakhtakor II1–2Aral13 Oct · away
Pick: Aral 87% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Metalourg and Aral meet in Pro League A on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. The match is played at Metallurg Stadium, Bekabad. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Metalourg win 31.6%, draw 29.6%, Aral win 38.8%. The pick is Aral win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.2%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.