ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 1 Italy Round 10 2026

Genoa U20 vs Lecce U20

Genoa U20 Home · Elo 1,479
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lecce U20 Away · Elo 1,510
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lecce U20 win
Genoa U20 win
34.1%
Draw
30.8%
Lecce U20 winPick
35.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.9%
No46.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%

How much we know

Genoa U20 history56 matches
Lecce U20 history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Lecce U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lecce U20 are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,510 against 1,479. On rating alone Lecce U20 would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.34 goals a game over 56 matches for Genoa U20, against 1.39 over 59 for Lecce U20.

  • Defences are close

    Genoa U20 concede 1.43 a game, Lecce U20 1.46.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Genoa U20 matches, against 53% for Lecce U20. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Genoa U20
Lecce U20
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.5
ELO
1509.5
56
ELO · Matches
59
1479.5
Current Team ELO
1509.5
1509.5
Current Opponent ELO
1479.5
-30.02
Current ELO Difference
30.02
0.46
Expected score
0.54
56
History Matches
59
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.67
Overperformance
50.77
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.90
1.50
Goals for per game
0.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
59
1.27
PPG
1.32
32.1%
Win rate
33.9%
30.4%
Draw rate
30.5%
37.5%
Loss rate
35.6%
76.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.4%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.8%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
29
1.18
PPG
1.14
28.6%
Win rate
27.6%
32.1%
Draw rate
31.0%
39.3%
Loss rate
41.4%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
28
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.39
80.4%
Scoring rate
67.8%
60.7%
BTTS rate
55.9%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.41
89.3%
Scoring rate
69.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
55.2%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
59
1.34
Goals Mean
1.39
1.04
Goals Std
1.35
80.4%
Scored 1+ rate
67.8%
35.7%
Scored 2+ rate
39.0%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
23.7%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.43
Goals against per game
1.46
76.8%
Conceding rate
79.7%
1.54
Goals against per game
1.66
85.7%
Conceding rate
82.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
59
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.21
Conceded Std
1.03
39.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.5%
17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.9%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.2%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.2%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
59
1.00
Result entropy
1.00
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.66
0.37
Stability score
0.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
58
12
Lead Matches
20
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.83
16
Trailing Matches
20
43.8%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.80
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
26
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.23
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.07
Portability PPG Range
0.24
93.83
Portability Score
80.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-30.02
PPG-0.05
GF-0.05
GA-0.03
PPG0.00
PPG0.04
PPG-1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate12.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.70
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score0.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.02
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate18.8%
Trailing Win Rate1.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.18
Portability Score13.48
Rest days-1.24
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO-30.02
Current Opponent ELO30.02
Current ELO Difference-60.03
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Genoa U20

D
Genoa U201–1Hellas Verona U201 Nov · home
Pick: Genoa U20 41% · missed
W
Genoa U203–0Reggiana U1927 Oct · home
Pick: Genoa U20 50% · hit
D
Roma U202–2Genoa U2024 Oct · away
Pick: Roma U20 61% · missed
D
Genoa U201–1Sassuolo U2018 Oct · home
Pick: Sassuolo U20 40% · missed
W
Monza U200–1Genoa U2031 Aug · away
Pick: Monza U20 43% · missed

Lecce U20

W
Lecce U203–0Bologna U2031 Oct · home
Pick: Bologna U20 39% · missed
W
Lecce U205–2Pisa U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Lecce U20 55% · hit
L
Juventus U203–2Lecce U2024 Oct · away
Pick: Juventus U20 47% · hit
W
Lecce U201–0Cesena U2017 Oct · home
Pick: Lecce U20 37% · hit
D
Torino U203–3Lecce U2030 Aug · away
Pick: Torino U20 36% · missed

About this match

Genoa U20 and Lecce U20 meet in Campionato Primavera - 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Genoa U20 win 34.1%, draw 30.8%, Lecce U20 win 35.1%. The pick is Lecce U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.5%. Both teams to score: 53.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.