ScoreProb
K League 1 South Korea Relegation Group - 35 2026

Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang

Gimcheon Sangmu FC Home · Elo 1,522
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Anyang Away · Elo 1,508
Gimcheon Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gimcheon Sangmu FC win
Gimcheon Sangmu FC winPick
39.8%
Draw
31.5%
FC Anyang win
28.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.3%
Under 2.549.7%

How much we know

Gimcheon Sangmu FC history67 matches
FC Anyang history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 22 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 07:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,522 against 1,508. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.31 goals a game over 67 matches for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, against 1.30 over 66 for FC Anyang.

  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC concede fewer

    Gimcheon Sangmu FC concede 1.16 a game, FC Anyang 1.33.

  • FC Anyang games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches, against 53% for FC Anyang. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
FC Anyang
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.6
ELO
1508.3
67
ELO · Matches
66
1521.6
Current Team ELO
1508.3
1508.3
Current Opponent ELO
1521.6
13.34
Current ELO Difference
-13.34
0.52
Expected score
0.48
67
History Matches
66
0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
51.32
Overperformance
50.57
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.60
0.90
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.84
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
66
1.42
PPG
1.33
35.8%
Win rate
36.4%
34.3%
Draw rate
24.2%
29.9%
Loss rate
39.4%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
43.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.0%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
33
1.47
PPG
1.39
38.2%
Win rate
39.4%
32.4%
Draw rate
21.2%
29.4%
Loss rate
39.4%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
51.5%
11.8%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
34
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.30
73.1%
Scoring rate
75.8%
56.7%
BTTS rate
65.2%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.24
70.6%
Scoring rate
78.8%
47.1%
BTTS rate
63.6%
0.92
Goals for per game
1.25
68.0%
Scoring rate
79.2%
60.0%
BTTS rate
70.8%
67
History Matches
66
1.31
Goals Mean
1.30
1.20
Goals Std
1.11
73.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.8%
34.3%
Scored 2+ rate
34.8%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
13.6%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.16
Goals against per game
1.33
71.6%
Conceding rate
84.8%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.24
67.6%
Conceding rate
78.8%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.54
76.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
67
History Matches
66
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.33
0.97
Conceded Std
1.03
34.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
9.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.1%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
66
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.57
0.27
Stability score
1.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
66
17
Lead Matches
18
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.78
16
Trailing Matches
17
31.3%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
39
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
21
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
24
1.08
PPG
1.25
16.0%
Win rate
29.2%
60.0%
Draw rate
37.5%
24.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
28.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
25
Current Competition Matches
24
1.08
Current Competition PPG
1.25
-0.24
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.29
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.53
Portability PPG Range
0.04
65.56
Portability Score
96.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO13.34
PPG0.08
GF0.01
GA-0.17
PPG-0.17
PPG0.08
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.2%
Failed-to-score rate2.6%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate8.2%
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate4.3%
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate13.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate2.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.01
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-1.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.60
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate1.8%
Trailing Win Rate7.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.05
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.49
Portability Score-30.64
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.92
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.37
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO13.34
Current Opponent ELO-13.34
Current ELO Difference26.68
Expected score0.04
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

L
Gimcheon Sangmu FC1–2Daejeon Citizen24 Oct · home
Pick: Daejeon Citizen 41% · hit
D
FC Seoul2–2Gimcheon Sangmu FC18 Oct · away
Pick: FC Seoul 58% · missed
D
Pohang Steelers0–0Gimcheon Sangmu FC9 Sep · away
Pick: Pohang Steelers 42% · missed
L
Ulsan Hyundai FC3–1Gimcheon Sangmu FC29 Aug · away
Pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% · hit
D
Gimcheon Sangmu FC0–0Jeonbuk Motors25 Aug · home
Pick: Jeonbuk Motors 40% · missed

FC Anyang

W
FC Anyang2–1Bucheon FC 19951 Nov · home
Pick: Bucheon FC 1995 39% · missed
D
FC Anyang1–1Jeonbuk Motors24 Oct · home
Pick: Jeonbuk Motors 45% · missed
D
Pohang Steelers0–0FC Anyang18 Oct · away
Pick: Pohang Steelers 45% · missed
L
Daejeon Citizen3–2FC Anyang9 Sep · away
Pick: Daejeon Citizen 51% · hit
D
Bucheon FC 19951–1FC Anyang29 Aug · away
Pick: Bucheon FC 1995 50% · missed

About this match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang meet in K League 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 07:30 UTC. The match is played at Gimcheon Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gimcheon Sangmu FC win 39.8%, draw 31.5%, FC Anyang win 28.6%. The pick is Gimcheon Sangmu FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.3%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.