ScoreProb
Segunda División Spain Round 13 2026

Las Palmas vs Eldense

Las Palmas Home · Elo 1,558
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eldense Away · Elo 1,526
Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Las Palmas win
Las Palmas winPick
61.0%
Draw
18.9%
Eldense win
20.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.4%
No48.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%

How much we know

Las Palmas history72 matches
Eldense history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Las Palmas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Las Palmas are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,526. On rating alone Las Palmas would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Eldense score more

    1.19 goals a game over 72 matches for Las Palmas, against 1.37 over 68 for Eldense.

  • Defences are close

    Las Palmas concede 1.18 a game, Eldense 1.31.

  • Eldense games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Las Palmas matches, against 54% for Eldense. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Las Palmas
Eldense
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1557.9
ELO
1525.6
72
ELO · Matches
68
1557.9
Current Team ELO
1525.6
1525.6
Current Opponent ELO
1557.9
32.29
Current ELO Difference
-32.29
0.55
Expected score
0.45
72
History Matches
68
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
53.07
Overperformance
51.43
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.20
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.70
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.10
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
68
1.33
PPG
1.49
36.1%
Win rate
39.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
29.4%
38.9%
Loss rate
30.9%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
54.4%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
26.5%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
34
1.49
PPG
1.06
42.9%
Win rate
23.5%
20.0%
Draw rate
35.3%
37.1%
Loss rate
41.2%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
45.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
20.6%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
35
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
1.37
72.2%
Scoring rate
77.9%
56.9%
BTTS rate
55.9%
1.31
Goals for per game
0.97
71.4%
Scoring rate
61.8%
51.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
72
History Matches
68
1.19
Goals Mean
1.37
1.04
Goals Std
1.08
72.2%
Scored 1+ rate
77.9%
31.9%
Scored 2+ rate
38.2%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
16.2%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.31
77.8%
Conceding rate
72.1%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.44
74.3%
Conceding rate
79.4%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
72
History Matches
68
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.31
0.99
Conceded Std
1.11
26.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.7%
9.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.2%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.1%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.1%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
68
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.63
1.54
Stability score
0.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
68
23
Lead Matches
18
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.78
20
Trailing Matches
17
30.0%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
15.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.02
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
38
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
27
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.37
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.50
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.35
Portability PPG Range
1.50
48.21
Portability Score
45.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO32.29
PPG-0.15
GF-0.17
GA-0.13
PPG2.50
PPG0.43
PPG2.20
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate5.7%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.29
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score0.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.45
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate6.5%
Trailing Win Rate3.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.15
Portability Score2.35
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO32.29
Current Opponent ELO-32.29
Current ELO Difference64.57
Expected score0.09
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.38

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Las Palmas

W
Oviedo2–3Las Palmas2 Nov · away
Pick: Las Palmas 43% · hit
W
Las Palmas1–0Real Sociedad II24 Oct · home
Pick: Las Palmas 56% · hit
L
Las Palmas0–3Castellón17 Oct · home
Pick: Las Palmas 44% · missed
D
Las Palmas2–2Valladolid4 Oct · home
Pick: Las Palmas 61% · missed
L
Girona5–2Las Palmas29 Aug · away
Pick: Las Palmas 40% · missed

Eldense

L
Eldense0–2Granada CF1 Nov · home
Pick: Granada CF 46% · hit
W
Atlético Baleares0–1Eldense29 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Baleares 46% · missed
L
Albacete2–0Eldense25 Oct · away
Pick: Albacete 54% · hit
W
Valladolid2–3Eldense18 Oct · away
Pick: Valladolid 39% · missed
L
Leganes1–0Eldense29 Aug · away
Pick: Leganes 57% · hit

About this match

Las Palmas and Eldense meet in Segunda División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Las Palmas win 61.0%, draw 18.9%, Eldense win 20.1%. The pick is Las Palmas win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%. Both teams to score: 51.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.