ScoreProb
Diski Challenge South Africa Round 7 2026

Golden Arrows U23 vs Marumo Gallants U23

Golden Arrows U23 Home · Elo 1,468
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Marumo Gallants U23 Away · Elo 1,484
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Golden Arrows U23 win
Golden Arrows U23 winPick
44.3%
Draw
21.7%
Marumo Gallants U23 win
34.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.2%
No39.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.9%
Under 2.536.1%

How much we know

Golden Arrows U23 history41 matches
Marumo Gallants U23 history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 08:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Golden Arrows U23 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,468 against 1,484. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.51 goals a game over 41 matches for Golden Arrows U23, against 1.59 over 39 for Marumo Gallants U23.

  • Defences are close

    Golden Arrows U23 concede 1.85 a game, Marumo Gallants U23 1.82.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Golden Arrows U23 matches, against 69% for Marumo Gallants U23. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Golden Arrows U23
Marumo Gallants U23
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1467.9
ELO
1484.1
41
ELO · Matches
39
1467.9
Current Team ELO
1484.1
1484.1
Current Opponent ELO
1467.9
-16.22
Current ELO Difference
16.22
0.48
Expected score
0.52
41
History Matches
39
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.63
Overperformance
49.19
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
2.60
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.30
1.80
Goals for per game
1.30
2.10
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
39
1.15
PPG
1.31
31.7%
Win rate
38.5%
19.5%
Draw rate
15.4%
48.8%
Loss rate
46.2%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
87.2%
68.3%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
41.5%
Over 3.5 rate
41.0%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
18
1.05
PPG
1.17
23.8%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
42.9%
Loss rate
50.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
21
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.51
Goals for per game
1.59
75.6%
Scoring rate
69.2%
70.7%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.39
81.0%
Scoring rate
61.1%
81.0%
BTTS rate
38.9%
41
History Matches
39
1.51
Goals Mean
1.59
1.21
Goals Std
1.60
75.6%
Scored 1+ rate
69.2%
48.8%
Scored 2+ rate
41.0%
19.5%
Scored 3+ rate
25.6%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.85
Goals against per game
1.82
90.2%
Conceding rate
79.5%
1.86
Goals against per game
1.72
90.5%
Conceding rate
72.2%
41
History Matches
39
1.85
Conceded Mean
1.82
1.20
Conceded Std
1.39
51.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
64.1%
34.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.1%
1.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
9.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
9.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
9.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
39
0.94
Result entropy
0.92
1.49
Goal Difference Std
2.31
5.95
Stability score
7.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
28
10
Lead Matches
9
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.85
14
Trailing Matches
9
21.4%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
28
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.32
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
183.0
Rest days
183.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
22
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
18
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.16
75.36
Portability Score
86.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-16.22
PPG-0.16
GF-0.08
GA0.03
PPG-0.12
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std-0.38
Scored 1+ rate6.4%
Scored 2+ rate7.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.82
Stability score-1.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.74
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate21.4%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.17
Portability Score-11.04
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.30
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Current Team ELO-16.22
Current Opponent ELO16.22
Current ELO Difference-32.44
Expected score-0.05
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Golden Arrows U23

W
Golden Arrows U232–0TS Galaxy U2331 Oct · home
Pick: Golden Arrows U23 41% · hit
L
Orlando Pirates U231–0Golden Arrows U2324 Oct · away
Pick: Orlando Pirates U23 60% · hit
W
Richards Bay U230–1Golden Arrows U2317 Oct · away
Pick: Richards Bay U23 41% · missed
W
Polokwane City U232–3Golden Arrows U234 Oct · away
Pick: Golden Arrows U23 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Marumo Gallants U23

L
Marumo Gallants U230–1Richards Bay U231 Nov · home
Pick: Richards Bay U23 45% · hit
L
Marumo Gallants U234–5Stellenbosch U2325 Oct · home
Pick: Stellenbosch U23 48% · hit
D
Marumo Gallants U231–1Sekhukhune United U234 Oct · home
Pick: Sekhukhune United U23 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Golden Arrows U23 and Marumo Gallants U23 meet in Diski Challenge on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 08:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Golden Arrows U23 win 44.3%, draw 21.7%, Marumo Gallants U23 win 34.0%. The pick is Golden Arrows U23 win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.9%. Both teams to score: 60.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.