ScoreProb
Diski Challenge South Africa Round 7 2026

Polokwane City U23 vs Orlando Pirates U23

Polokwane City U23 Home · Elo 1,395
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Orlando Pirates U23 Away · Elo 1,629
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Orlando Pirates U23 win
Polokwane City U23 win
25.9%
Draw
23.2%
Orlando Pirates U23 winPick
51.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.1%
No53.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.2%
Under 2.547.8%

How much we know

Polokwane City U23 history38 matches
Orlando Pirates U23 history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 08:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Orlando Pirates U23 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Orlando Pirates U23 are rated 234 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,629 against 1,395. On rating alone Orlando Pirates U23 would be expected to take 79% of the points on offer.

  • Orlando Pirates U23 score far more

    0.68 goals a game over 38 matches for Polokwane City U23, against 1.90 over 40 for Orlando Pirates U23.

  • Orlando Pirates U23 concede fewer

    Polokwane City U23 concede 1.76 a game, Orlando Pirates U23 0.83.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Polokwane City U23 matches, against 53% for Orlando Pirates U23. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Polokwane City U23
Orlando Pirates U23
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1395.0
ELO
1628.8
38
ELO · Matches
40
1395.0
Current Team ELO
1628.8
1628.8
Current Opponent ELO
1395.0
-233.8
Current ELO Difference
233.8
0.21
Expected score
0.79
38
History Matches
40
-0.13
Residual Mean
0.16
41.38
Overperformance
60.63
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
3.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
2.40
Goals against per game
0.20
20.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
2.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.90
1.90
Goals against per game
0.70
10.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
40
0.74
PPG
2.18
15.8%
Win rate
70.0%
26.3%
Draw rate
7.5%
57.9%
Loss rate
22.5%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
23.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
20
0.80
PPG
2.35
20.0%
Win rate
75.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
10.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
15.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
20
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.68
Goals for per game
1.90
47.4%
Scoring rate
92.5%
44.7%
BTTS rate
45.0%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.90
55.0%
Scoring rate
95.0%
55.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
38
History Matches
40
0.68
Goals Mean
1.90
0.83
Goals Std
1.20
47.4%
Scored 1+ rate
92.5%
18.4%
Scored 2+ rate
57.5%
2.6%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
0.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.76
Goals against per game
0.83
86.8%
Conceding rate
52.5%
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
95.0%
Conceding rate
55.0%
38
History Matches
40
1.76
Conceded Mean
0.83
1.18
Conceded Std
0.92
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
31.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.0%
1.60
Venue Conceded Mean
0.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
47.5%
52.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.5%
5.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.0%
45.0%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
47.5%
52.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.5%
5.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.0%
45.0%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
47.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
40
0.87
Result entropy
0.71
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.60
12.69
Stability score
29.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
32
Eligible Matches
38
4
Lead Matches
16
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
1.00
15
Trailing Matches
9
0.0%
Non-loss rate
55.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
32
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.28
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
183.0
Rest days
183.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
23
0.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.39
14
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.18
Portability PPG Range
0.72
84.42
Portability Score
58.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-233.8
PPG-1.44
GF-1.22
GA0.94
PPG-1.55
PPG-2.40
PPG-1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.34
Failed-to-score rate45.1%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.40
Failed-to-score rate40.0%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-1.22
Goals Std-0.37
Scored 1+ rate-0.45
Scored 2+ rate-0.39
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.42
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.94
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.34
Conceded 2+ rate25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate26.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.16
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-16.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.56
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.53
Portability Score26.11
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.61
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.29
Current Team ELO-233.8
Current Opponent ELO233.8
Current ELO Difference-467.6
Expected score-0.59
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.29
Overperformance-19.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Polokwane City U23

D
Mamelodi Sundowns U231–1Polokwane City U2331 Oct · away
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns U23 67% · missed
W
Milford FC U230–1Polokwane City U2325 Oct · away
Pick: Milford FC U23 39% · missed
W
Polokwane City U232–1AmaZulu U2317 Oct · home
Pick: AmaZulu U23 42% · missed
L
Polokwane City U232–3Golden Arrows U234 Oct · home
Pick: Golden Arrows U23 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Orlando Pirates U23

W
Orlando Pirates U235–0Sekhukhune United U2331 Oct · home
Pick: Orlando Pirates U23 41% · hit
W
Orlando Pirates U231–0Golden Arrows U2324 Oct · home
Pick: Orlando Pirates U23 60% · hit
D
Kruger United U231–1Orlando Pirates U2318 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 34% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Polokwane City U23 and Orlando Pirates U23 meet in Diski Challenge on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 08:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Polokwane City U23 win 25.9%, draw 23.2%, Orlando Pirates U23 win 51.0%. The pick is Orlando Pirates U23 win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.2%. Both teams to score: 46.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.