ScoreProb
Diski Challenge South Africa Round 7 2026

Sekhukhune United U23 vs Mamelodi Sundowns U23

Sekhukhune United U23 Home · Elo 1,494
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mamelodi Sundowns U23 Away · Elo 1,638
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win
Sekhukhune United U23 win
36.2%
Draw
27.0%
Mamelodi Sundowns U23 winPick
36.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.6%
No47.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%

How much we know

Sekhukhune United U23 history42 matches
Mamelodi Sundowns U23 history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 08:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Mamelodi Sundowns U23 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mamelodi Sundowns U23 are rated 144 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,638 against 1,494. On rating alone Mamelodi Sundowns U23 would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Mamelodi Sundowns U23 score far more

    1.45 goals a game over 42 matches for Sekhukhune United U23, against 2.28 over 40 for Mamelodi Sundowns U23.

  • Mamelodi Sundowns U23 concede fewer

    Sekhukhune United U23 concede 1.29 a game, Mamelodi Sundowns U23 0.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Sekhukhune United U23 matches, against 55% for Mamelodi Sundowns U23. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sekhukhune United U23
Mamelodi Sundowns U23
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.3
ELO
1638.4
42
ELO · Matches
40
1494.3
Current Team ELO
1638.4
1638.4
Current Opponent ELO
1494.3
-144.0
Current ELO Difference
144.0
0.30
Expected score
0.70
42
History Matches
40
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.16
49.57
Overperformance
60.98
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.70
2.00
Goals for per game
2.90
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
90.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.90
1.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
2.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
40
1.31
PPG
2.28
33.3%
Win rate
72.5%
31.0%
Draw rate
10.0%
35.7%
Loss rate
17.5%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
59.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.5%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
21
1.43
PPG
2.14
38.1%
Win rate
66.7%
28.6%
Draw rate
14.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
19.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
21
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.45
Goals for per game
2.28
76.2%
Scoring rate
87.5%
52.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.52
Goals for per game
2.24
71.4%
Scoring rate
85.7%
42.9%
BTTS rate
61.9%
42
History Matches
40
1.45
Goals Mean
2.28
1.18
Goals Std
1.63
76.2%
Scored 1+ rate
87.5%
40.5%
Scored 2+ rate
65.0%
23.8%
Scored 3+ rate
40.0%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
2.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
0.95
66.7%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.00
57.1%
Conceding rate
76.2%
42
History Matches
40
1.29
Conceded Mean
0.95
1.14
Conceded Std
1.07
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.5%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.5%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
40
1.00
Result entropy
0.70
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.99
0.15
Stability score
30.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
37
16
Lead Matches
21
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
95.2%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.95
13
Trailing Matches
5
38.5%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
1.32
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
183.0
Rest days
183.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
20
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.54
21
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.03
Portability PPG Range
0.15
96.77
Portability Score
86.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-144.0
PPG-0.97
GF-0.82
GA0.34
PPG-0.71
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate11.3%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.82
Goals Std-0.45
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate20.4%
Conceded 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.50
History Matches2
Result entropy0.30
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-29.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.48
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate18.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.12
Portability Score10.18
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.39
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-144.0
Current Opponent ELO144.0
Current ELO Difference-288.1
Expected score-0.39
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.17
Overperformance-11.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sekhukhune United U23

L
Orlando Pirates U235–0Sekhukhune United U2331 Oct · away
Pick: Orlando Pirates U23 41% · hit
W
Sekhukhune United U233–0Richards Bay U2325 Oct · home
Pick: Sekhukhune United U23 38% · hit
L
Chippa United U234–1Sekhukhune United U2317 Oct · away
Pick: Sekhukhune United U23 63% · missed
D
Marumo Gallants U231–1Sekhukhune United U234 Oct · away
Pick: Sekhukhune United U23 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mamelodi Sundowns U23

D
Mamelodi Sundowns U231–1Polokwane City U2331 Oct · home
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns U23 67% · missed
W
Mamelodi Sundowns U233–0Chippa United U2325 Oct · home
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns U23 82% · hit
L
Kaizer Chiefs U234–2Mamelodi Sundowns U234 Oct · away
Pick: Kaizer Chiefs U23 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sekhukhune United U23 and Mamelodi Sundowns U23 meet in Diski Challenge on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 08:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sekhukhune United U23 win 36.2%, draw 27.0%, Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win 36.8%. The pick is Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.