ScoreProb
Primera División Bolivia Round 25 2026

Guabirá vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo

Guabirá Home · Elo 1,577
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
San Antonio Bulo Bulo Away · Elo 1,439
Estadio Gilberto Parada, Montero Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Guabirá win
Guabirá winPick
57.3%
Draw
20.6%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo win
22.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.3%
No39.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.4%
Under 2.528.6%

How much we know

Guabirá history57 matches
San Antonio Bulo Bulo history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 23:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Guabirá are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Guabirá are rated 138 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,577 against 1,439. On rating alone Guabirá would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Guabirá score more

    1.84 goals a game over 57 matches for Guabirá, against 1.49 over 72 for San Antonio Bulo Bulo.

  • Guabirá concede fewer

    Guabirá concede 1.86 a game, San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2.07.

  • Guabirá games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Guabirá matches, against 64% for San Antonio Bulo Bulo. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Guabirá
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1576.9
ELO
1438.6
57
ELO · Matches
72
1576.9
Current Team ELO
1438.6
1438.6
Current Opponent ELO
1576.9
138.3
Current ELO Difference
-138.3
0.69
Expected score
0.31
57
History Matches
72
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.04
55.42
Overperformance
47.01
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
0.60
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.00
1.90
Goals for per game
0.90
1.10
Goals against per game
2.10
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.70
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
72
1.75
PPG
1.13
50.9%
Win rate
30.6%
22.8%
Draw rate
20.8%
26.3%
Loss rate
48.6%
89.5%
Over 1.5 rate
90.3%
75.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.9%
50.9%
Over 3.5 rate
47.2%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
35
2.48
PPG
0.66
77.4%
Win rate
14.3%
16.1%
Draw rate
22.9%
6.5%
Loss rate
62.9%
90.3%
Over 1.5 rate
94.3%
80.6%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
51.6%
Over 3.5 rate
62.9%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
31
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.84
Goals for per game
1.49
82.5%
Scoring rate
69.4%
66.7%
BTTS rate
58.3%
2.55
Goals for per game
1.23
100.0%
Scoring rate
65.7%
77.4%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.07
85.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
64.3%
BTTS rate
60.0%
57
History Matches
72
1.84
Goals Mean
1.49
1.45
Goals Std
1.37
82.5%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
54.4%
Scored 2+ rate
47.2%
28.1%
Scored 3+ rate
18.1%
2.55
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.86
Goals against per game
2.07
82.5%
Conceding rate
86.1%
1.29
Goals against per game
2.69
77.4%
Conceding rate
91.4%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.13
78.6%
Conceding rate
86.7%
57
History Matches
72
1.86
Conceded Mean
2.07
1.52
Conceded Std
1.52
47.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.3%
29.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
2.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
8.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
8.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
72
0.94
Result entropy
0.95
2.33
Goal Difference Std
2.13
6.04
Stability score
5.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
72
16
Lead Matches
19
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.82
19
Trailing Matches
26
36.8%
Non-loss rate
19.2%
31.6%
Trailing Win Rate
3.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
1.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.26
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.09
Rest days
77.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
14
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.71
26
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.05
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
14
Matches
15
1.79
PPG
0.93
50.0%
Win rate
26.7%
28.6%
Draw rate
13.3%
21.4%
Loss rate
60.0%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
14
Current Competition Matches
15
1.79
Current Competition PPG
0.93
0.36
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.07
8
Competition Season Count
10
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.18
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.50
57.20
Portability Score
73.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO138.3
PPG0.63
GF0.36
GA-0.21
PPG0.85
PPG1.83
PPG1.80
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate14.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.34
History Matches-15
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate13.0%
Scored 2+ rate7.2%
Scored 3+ rate10.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.31
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.66
History Matches-15
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score0.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.29
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate17.6%
Trailing Win Rate27.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.85
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.42
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.50
Portability Score-16.28
Rest days-1.86
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.64
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match1.06
Current Team ELO138.3
Current Opponent ELO-138.3
Current ELO Difference276.6
Expected score0.38
History Matches-15
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Guabirá

L
Guabirá1–2Bolívar1 Nov · home
Pick: Bolívar 57% · hit
L
Nacional Potosí3–0Guabirá26 Oct · away
Pick: Nacional Potosí 47% · hit
D
Guabirá1–1Oriente Petrolero18 Oct · home
Pick: Guabirá 44% · missed
L
Gualberto Villarroel SJ4–1Guabirá12 Oct · away
Pick: Guabirá 42% · missed
W
Guabirá2–1Oriente Petrolero4 Oct · home
Pick: Guabirá 59% · hit

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

W
ABB2–3San Antonio Bulo Bulo31 Oct · away
Pick: ABB 50% · missed
W
San Antonio Bulo Bulo2–1Real Potosí24 Oct · home
Pick: Real Potosí 60% · missed
L
Universitario de Vinto2–1San Antonio Bulo Bulo17 Oct · away
Pick: Universitario de Vinto 47% · hit
L
Real Potosí4–2San Antonio Bulo Bulo6 Oct · away
Pick: Real Potosí 61% · hit
W
San Antonio Bulo Bulo5–1Guabirá31 Aug · home
Pick: Guabirá 42% · missed

About this match

Guabirá and San Antonio Bulo Bulo meet in Primera División on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 23:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Gilberto Parada, Montero. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Guabirá win 57.3%, draw 20.6%, San Antonio Bulo Bulo win 22.1%. The pick is Guabirá win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.4%. Both teams to score: 60.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.