ScoreProb
Primera División Bolivia Round 25 2026

Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro

Gualberto Villarroel SJ Home · Elo 1,433
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Oruro Away · Elo 1,453
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gualberto Villarroel SJ win
Gualberto Villarroel SJ winPick
52.2%
Draw
17.9%
Real Oruro win
29.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.0%
No37.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.0%
Under 2.530.0%

How much we know

Gualberto Villarroel SJ history66 matches
Real Oruro history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Gualberto Villarroel SJ are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,433 against 1,453. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Real Oruro score more

    1.35 goals a game over 66 matches for Gualberto Villarroel SJ, against 1.97 over 58 for Real Oruro.

  • Gualberto Villarroel SJ concede fewer

    Gualberto Villarroel SJ concede 1.80 a game, Real Oruro 2.09.

  • Real Oruro games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Gualberto Villarroel SJ matches, against 78% for Real Oruro. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Real Oruro
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1433.4
ELO
1453.0
66
ELO · Matches
58
1433.4
Current Team ELO
1453.0
1453.0
Current Opponent ELO
1433.4
-19.59
Current ELO Difference
19.59
0.47
Expected score
0.53
66
History Matches
58
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.03
45.98
Overperformance
47.72
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.90
1.40
Goals against per game
2.80
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.66
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
0.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.88
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
58
1.09
PPG
1.26
28.8%
Win rate
34.5%
22.7%
Draw rate
22.4%
48.5%
Loss rate
43.1%
80.3%
Over 1.5 rate
96.6%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
77.6%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
53.4%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
26
1.50
PPG
0.85
40.6%
Win rate
19.2%
28.1%
Draw rate
26.9%
31.3%
Loss rate
53.8%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
96.2%
68.8%
Over 2.5 rate
80.8%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
32
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.97
69.7%
Scoring rate
89.7%
56.1%
BTTS rate
81.0%
1.97
Goals for per game
1.38
81.3%
Scoring rate
88.5%
65.6%
BTTS rate
88.5%
1.13
Goals for per game
1.81
66.7%
Scoring rate
87.5%
66.7%
BTTS rate
87.5%
66
History Matches
58
1.35
Goals Mean
1.97
1.41
Goals Std
1.62
69.7%
Scored 1+ rate
89.7%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
53.4%
15.2%
Scored 3+ rate
27.6%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.80
Goals against per game
2.09
78.8%
Conceding rate
89.7%
1.47
Goals against per game
2.23
75.0%
Conceding rate
96.2%
1.60
Goals against per game
2.63
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
58
1.80
Conceded Mean
2.09
1.54
Conceded Std
1.51
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.2%
27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
34.5%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
2.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
3.8%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
3.8%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
58
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
2.34
Goal Difference Std
2.36
4.77
Stability score
3.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
58
15
Lead Matches
17
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
64.7%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.69
27
Trailing Matches
21
18.5%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.00
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.11
30
Normal Rest History Matches
28
0.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.26
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
16
0.87
PPG
1.06
13.3%
Win rate
31.3%
46.7%
Draw rate
12.5%
40.0%
Loss rate
56.3%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
93.8%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
68.8%
1.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.40
15
Current Competition Matches
16
0.87
Current Competition PPG
1.06
-0.47
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.81
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.55
0.56
Portability PPG Range
1.24
70.66
Portability Score
47.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-19.59
PPG-0.17
GF-0.62
GA-0.28
PPG-0.20
PPG0.65
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Failed-to-score rate20.0%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate21.2%
Failed-to-score rate7.2%
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.62
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score1.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.10
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate2.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.35
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-0.68
Portability Score23.07
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.22
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO-19.59
Current Opponent ELO19.59
Current ELO Difference-39.17
Expected score-0.06
History Matches8
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

L
The Strongest4–2Gualberto Villarroel SJ1 Nov · away
Pick: The Strongest 56% · hit
W
Gualberto Villarroel SJ2–1Blooming24 Oct · home
Pick: Blooming 42% · missed
L
Real Tomayapo1–0Gualberto Villarroel SJ17 Oct · away
Pick: Gualberto Villarroel SJ 41% · missed
W
Gualberto Villarroel SJ4–1Guabirá12 Oct · home
Pick: Guabirá 42% · missed
W
Gualberto Villarroel SJ3–2Blooming4 Oct · home
Pick: Blooming 44% · missed

Real Oruro

D
Real Oruro1–1Nacional Potosí31 Oct · home
Pick: Nacional Potosí 43% · missed
L
Always Ready5–1Real Oruro25 Oct · away
Pick: Always Ready 78% · hit
W
Real Oruro1–0Aurora17 Oct · home
Pick: Real Oruro 41% · hit
W
Real Oruro4–0Real Tomayapo6 Oct · home
Pick: Real Oruro 62% · hit
L
Gualberto Villarroel SJ4–1Real Oruro29 Aug · away
Pick: Gualberto Villarroel SJ 54% · hit

About this match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ and Real Oruro meet in Primera División on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gualberto Villarroel SJ win 52.2%, draw 17.9%, Real Oruro win 29.9%. The pick is Gualberto Villarroel SJ win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.0%. Both teams to score: 63.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.