ScoreProb
Challenge League Malta Round 7 2026

Gudja United vs Swieqi United

Gudja United Home · Elo 1,488
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Swieqi United Away · Elo 1,582
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Swieqi United win
Gudja United win
30.2%
Draw
21.0%
Swieqi United winPick
48.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.5%
No43.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.3%
Under 2.542.7%

How much we know

Gudja United history34 matches
Swieqi United history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Swieqi United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Swieqi United are rated 94 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,582 against 1,488. On rating alone Swieqi United would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Swieqi United score far more

    1.32 goals a game over 34 matches for Gudja United, against 2.09 over 35 for Swieqi United.

  • Defences are close

    Gudja United concede 1.38 a game, Swieqi United 1.46.

  • Swieqi United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Gudja United matches, against 66% for Swieqi United. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gudja United
Swieqi United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.0
ELO
1582.1
34
ELO · Matches
35
1488.0
Current Team ELO
1582.1
1582.1
Current Opponent ELO
1488.0
-94.09
Current ELO Difference
94.09
0.37
Expected score
0.63
34
History Matches
35
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.12
49.24
Overperformance
57.51
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.31
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.20
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.10
1.50
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
35
1.29
PPG
1.86
32.4%
Win rate
54.3%
32.4%
Draw rate
22.9%
35.3%
Loss rate
22.9%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
91.4%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
65.7%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
51.4%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
17
1.22
PPG
1.76
33.3%
Win rate
52.9%
22.2%
Draw rate
17.6%
44.4%
Loss rate
29.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
18
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.32
Goals for per game
2.09
82.4%
Scoring rate
91.4%
61.8%
BTTS rate
74.3%
1.06
Goals for per game
1.59
72.2%
Scoring rate
82.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
64.7%
34
History Matches
35
1.32
Goals Mean
2.09
0.96
Goals Std
1.52
82.4%
Scored 1+ rate
91.4%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
34.3%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.38
Goals against per game
1.46
76.5%
Conceding rate
82.9%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.59
72.2%
Conceding rate
82.4%
34
History Matches
35
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.03
Conceded Std
1.18
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.1%
17.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
8.6%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
8.6%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
35
1.00
Result entropy
0.92
1.43
Goal Difference Std
2.14
0.08
Stability score
8.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
35
6
Lead Matches
16
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.81
10
Trailing Matches
9
40.0%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
203.2
Rest days
197.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
14
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.79
19
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.55
Portability PPG Range
0.62
64.33
Portability Score
61.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-94.09
PPG-0.56
GF-0.76
GA-0.07
PPG-0.54
PPG-0.20
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Failed-to-score rate9.1%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate10.1%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.76
Goals Std-0.56
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Conceded 2+ rate7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.48
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.71
Stability score-8.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.22
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.06
Portability Score2.54
Rest days5.23
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Current Team ELO-94.09
Current Opponent ELO94.09
Current ELO Difference-188.2
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-8.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.39

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gudja United

L
Naxxar Lions2–1Gudja United1 Nov · away
Pick: Naxxar Lions 57% · hit
L
Gudja United1–2Fgura United24 Oct · home
Pick: Fgura United 44% · hit
L
Zurrieq1–0Gudja United17 Oct · away
Pick: Zurrieq 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Swieqi United

W
Swieqi United2–0Santa Lucía1 Nov · home
Pick: Swieqi United 48% · hit
W
Victoria Hotspurs1–2Swieqi United25 Oct · away
Pick: Swieqi United 61% · hit
W
Swieqi United3–2Sirens18 Oct · home
Pick: Swieqi United 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gudja United and Swieqi United meet in Challenge League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gudja United win 30.2%, draw 21.0%, Swieqi United win 48.8%. The pick is Swieqi United win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.3%. Both teams to score: 56.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.