ScoreProb
Regionalliga - North Austria North - 16 2026

Gurten vs UFC Hallein

Gurten Home · Elo 1,603
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
UFC Hallein Away · Elo 1,566
Park21-Arena, Gurten Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gurten win
Gurten winPick
66.7%
Draw
16.7%
UFC Hallein win
16.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.0%
Under 2.534.0%

How much we know

Gurten history57 matches
UFC Hallein history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Gurten are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gurten are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,566. On rating alone Gurten would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • UFC Hallein score more

    1.84 goals a game over 57 matches for Gurten, against 2.31 over 39 for UFC Hallein.

  • Gurten concede fewer

    Gurten concede 1.02 a game, UFC Hallein 1.56.

  • UFC Hallein games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Gurten matches, against 82% for UFC Hallein. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gurten
UFC Hallein
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1602.9
ELO
1566.0
57
ELO · Matches
39
1602.9
Current Team ELO
1566.0
1566.0
Current Opponent ELO
1602.9
36.91
Current ELO Difference
-36.91
0.55
Expected score
0.45
57
History Matches
39
0.09
Residual Mean
0.09
56.60
Overperformance
55.73
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
2.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.50
2.10
Goals for per game
1.90
1.10
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
39
1.91
PPG
1.74
59.6%
Win rate
51.3%
12.3%
Draw rate
20.5%
28.1%
Loss rate
28.2%
71.9%
Over 1.5 rate
94.9%
56.1%
Over 2.5 rate
82.1%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
61.5%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
19
2.14
PPG
1.53
65.5%
Win rate
42.1%
17.2%
Draw rate
26.3%
17.2%
Loss rate
31.6%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
89.5%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
57.9%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
29
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.84
Goals for per game
2.31
82.5%
Scoring rate
82.1%
45.6%
BTTS rate
56.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.95
89.7%
Scoring rate
73.7%
51.7%
BTTS rate
57.9%
2.40
Goals for per game
1.50
80.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
57
History Matches
39
1.84
Goals Mean
2.31
1.47
Goals Std
1.60
82.5%
Scored 1+ rate
82.1%
52.6%
Scored 2+ rate
74.4%
26.3%
Scored 3+ rate
41.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.56
57.9%
Conceding rate
71.8%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.74
55.2%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.40
Goals against per game
2.50
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
39
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.15
Conceded Std
1.32
24.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.3%
15.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
39
0.84
Result entropy
0.93
1.99
Goal Difference Std
2.43
16.04
Stability score
6.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
39
23
Lead Matches
17
91.3%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.92
8
Trailing Matches
13
25.0%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.89
First Half Goals For Mean
1.15
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.15
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
77.89
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
33
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
21
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
1.80
PPG
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
5
Current Competition Matches
4
1.80
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.60
Portability PPG Std
0.74
1.54
Portability PPG Range
1.96
45.36
Portability Score
40.38
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO36.91
PPG0.17
GF-0.47
GA-0.55
PPG0.80
PPG0.61
PPG1.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate23.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches18
Goals Mean-0.47
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate0.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches18
Conceded Mean-0.55
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.27
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.84
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches18
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score9.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.90
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate3.1%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate4.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.43
Portability Score4.98
Rest days-0.86
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.25
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO36.91
Current Opponent ELO-36.91
Current ELO Difference73.81
Expected score0.11
History Matches18
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gurten

W
Gurten3–1Wohnbau Dietach23 Oct · home
Pick: Gurten 73% · hit
W
Ried II0–1Gurten18 Oct · away
Pick: Gurten 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

UFC Hallein

D
Ried II0–0UFC Hallein31 Oct · away
Pick: Ried II 54% · missed
L
UFC Hallein0–2Wals-Grünau23 Oct · home
Pick: Wals-Grünau 44% · hit
W
Seekirchen0–2UFC Hallein16 Oct · away
Pick: Seekirchen 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gurten and UFC Hallein meet in Regionalliga - North on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at Park21-Arena, Gurten. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gurten win 66.7%, draw 16.7%, UFC Hallein win 16.7%. The pick is Gurten win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.0%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.