ScoreProb
Regionalliga - North Austria North - 16 2026

TSV St. Johann vs Grödig

TSV St. Johann Home · Elo 1,436
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Grödig Away · Elo 1,624
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Grödig win
TSV St. Johann win
20.5%
Draw
17.0%
Grödig winPick
62.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.3%
No48.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.0%
Under 2.536.0%

How much we know

TSV St. Johann history52 matches
Grödig history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.5%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Grödig are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Grödig are rated 189 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,624 against 1,436. On rating alone Grödig would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Grödig score far more

    1.33 goals a game over 52 matches for TSV St. Johann, against 2.67 over 39 for Grödig.

  • Grödig concede fewer

    TSV St. Johann concede 1.92 a game, Grödig 0.92.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of TSV St. Johann matches, against 69% for Grödig. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
TSV St. Johann
Grödig
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1435.7
ELO
1624.4
52
ELO · Matches
39
1435.7
Current Team ELO
1624.4
1624.4
Current Opponent ELO
1435.7
-188.7
Current ELO Difference
188.7
0.25
Expected score
0.75
52
History Matches
39
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.17
45.45
Overperformance
61.14
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.20
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.70
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.91
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
39
1.04
PPG
2.26
30.8%
Win rate
71.8%
11.5%
Draw rate
10.3%
57.7%
Loss rate
17.9%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
87.2%
65.4%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
53.8%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
17
1.48
PPG
2.29
48.0%
Win rate
76.5%
4.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
48.0%
Loss rate
23.5%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
25
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
2.67
69.2%
Scoring rate
92.3%
55.8%
BTTS rate
41.0%
1.72
Goals for per game
2.65
76.0%
Scoring rate
88.2%
52.0%
BTTS rate
35.3%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
40.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
52
History Matches
39
1.33
Goals Mean
2.67
1.41
Goals Std
1.62
69.2%
Scored 1+ rate
92.3%
30.8%
Scored 2+ rate
76.9%
17.3%
Scored 3+ rate
48.7%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
2.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.92
Goals against per game
0.92
84.6%
Conceding rate
48.7%
1.52
Goals against per game
0.76
76.0%
Conceding rate
47.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
52
History Matches
39
1.92
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.38
Conceded Std
1.07
57.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
32.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
0.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
51.3%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
52.9%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
51.3%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
52.9%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
51.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
39
0.85
Result entropy
0.71
2.15
Goal Difference Std
2.18
15.42
Stability score
29.02
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
39
14
Lead Matches
23
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
91.3%
0.57
Lead Points Retention
0.94
19
Trailing Matches
6
10.5%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
1.18
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.49
1.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.85
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
20
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.80
-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.35
0.34
Portability PPG Range
0.77
78.13
Portability Score
58.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-188.7
PPG-1.22
GF-1.34
GA1.00
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.81
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.36
Failed-to-score rate23.1%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate12.2%
History Matches13
Goals Mean-1.34
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.23
Scored 2+ rate-0.46
Scored 3+ rate-0.31
Venue Goals Mean-0.93
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.79
History Matches13
Conceded Mean1.00
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate-0.36
Conceded 2+ rate24.4%
Conceded 3+ rate22.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches13
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-13.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.08
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.41
Lead Points Retention-0.37
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate5.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.71
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.80
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.43
Portability Score19.17
Rest days0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.25
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.89
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.61
Current Team ELO-188.7
Current Opponent ELO188.7
Current ELO Difference-377.5
Expected score-0.50
History Matches13
Residual Mean-0.23
Overperformance-15.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

TSV St. Johann

W
TSV St. Johann2–0SK Vorwarts Steyr31 Oct · home
Pick: TSV St. Johann 43% · hit
D
Leonfelden2–2TSV St. Johann24 Oct · away
Pick: Leonfelden 51% · missed
D
TSV St. Johann1–1Bad Schallerbach16 Oct · home
Pick: Bad Schallerbach 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Grödig

D
Wallern / Marienkirchen0–0Grödig30 Oct · away
Pick: Wallern / Marienkirchen 50% · missed
W
Grödig3–1Pinzgau Saalfelden24 Oct · home
Pick: Grödig 77% · hit
L
Kuchl1–0Grödig16 Oct · away
Pick: Kuchl 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

TSV St. Johann and Grödig meet in Regionalliga - North on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: TSV St. Johann win 20.5%, draw 17.0%, Grödig win 62.5%. The pick is Grödig win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.0%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.