Haiti vs USA
Match result probability Model pick: Haiti win
Haiti winPick
39.2%
Draw
24.7%
USA win
36.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.3%
No41.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%
How much we know
Haiti history17 matches
USA history17 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Haiti
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 20:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 21:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.2%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Haiti are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,480 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
USA score more
1.53 goals a game over 17 matches for Haiti, against 1.94 over 17 for USA.
-
Haiti concede fewer
Haiti concede 1.41 a game, USA 1.76.
-
USA games more often go over 2.5 goals
59% of Haiti matches, against 71% for USA. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 7 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1480.0
ELO
1500.4
17
ELO · Matches
17
1480.0
Current Team ELO
1500.4
1500.4
Current Opponent ELO
1480.0
-20.43
Current ELO Difference
20.43
0.47
Expected score
0.53
17
History Matches
17
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.06
48.11
Overperformance
52.83
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.10
Goals for per game
2.40
1.50
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals 90
17
Matches
17
1.24
PPG
1.47
35.3%
Win rate
47.1%
17.6%
Draw rate
5.9%
47.1%
Loss rate
47.1%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.46
Venue performance10 signals 100
10
Matches
3
1.10
PPG
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
33.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
30.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
10
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.53
Goals for per game
1.94
64.7%
Scoring rate
88.2%
29.4%
BTTS rate
64.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.33
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
30.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
17
History Matches
17
1.53
Goals Mean
1.94
1.54
Goals Std
1.47
64.7%
Scored 1+ rate
88.2%
41.2%
Scored 2+ rate
52.9%
29.4%
Scored 3+ rate
23.5%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.41
Goals against per game
1.76
58.8%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.67
60.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
17
History Matches
17
1.41
Conceded Mean
1.76
1.57
Conceded Std
1.48
35.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.9%
29.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.5%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
17
History Matches
17
0.94
Result entropy
0.80
2.49
Goal Difference Std
2.46
6.39
Stability score
20.25
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
17
Eligible Matches
17
7
Lead Matches
6
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
1.00
7
Trailing Matches
6
14.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
1.29
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
143.0
Rest days
130.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
7
Normal Rest History Matches
10
0.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
7
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.72
Portability PPG Std
0.34
1.75
Portability PPG Range
0.80
41.09
Portability Score
59.20
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
17
Clean History Matches
17
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-20.43
PPG-0.24
GF-0.41
GA-0.35
PPG0.10
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate17.6%
Failed-to-score rate23.5%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Failed-to-score rate40.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.41
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.24
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Goals Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate17.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches0
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score-13.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.18
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.37
Portability PPG Range0.95
Portability Score-18.11
Rest days12.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.23
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.69
Current Team ELO-20.43
Current Opponent ELO20.43
Current ELO Difference-40.86
Expected score-0.06
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-4.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Haiti and USA meet in CONCACAF Nations League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Haiti win 39.2%, draw 24.7%, USA win 36.1%. The pick is Haiti win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.2%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.