ScoreProb
Allsvenskan Sweden Round 28 2026

Halmstad vs Djurgardens IF

Halmstad Home · Elo 1,448
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Djurgardens IF Away · Elo 1,598
Orjans Vall, Halmstad Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Djurgardens IF win
Halmstad win
21.0%
Draw
20.9%
Djurgardens IF winPick
58.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.1%
No51.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%

How much we know

Halmstad history70 matches
Djurgardens IF history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Djurgardens IF are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Djurgardens IF are rated 150 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,598 against 1,448. On rating alone Djurgardens IF would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Djurgardens IF score far more

    0.97 goals a game over 70 matches for Halmstad, against 1.87 over 69 for Djurgardens IF.

  • Djurgardens IF concede fewer

    Halmstad concede 1.69 a game, Djurgardens IF 1.16.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Halmstad matches, against 48% for Djurgardens IF. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Halmstad
Djurgardens IF
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.9
ELO
1597.9
70
ELO · Matches
69
1447.9
Current Team ELO
1597.9
1597.9
Current Opponent ELO
1447.9
-150.0
Current ELO Difference
150.0
0.30
Expected score
0.70
70
History Matches
69
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.07
47.16
Overperformance
55.64
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.80
0.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.70
0.70
Goals for per game
2.00
1.90
Goals against per game
0.90
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.84
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
69
1.07
PPG
1.61
28.6%
Win rate
46.4%
21.4%
Draw rate
21.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
31.9%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.1%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
27.1%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
34
1.24
PPG
1.71
35.3%
Win rate
50.0%
17.6%
Draw rate
20.6%
47.1%
Loss rate
29.4%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
34
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.97
Goals for per game
1.87
58.6%
Scoring rate
75.4%
40.0%
BTTS rate
49.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.68
58.8%
Scoring rate
70.6%
35.3%
BTTS rate
44.1%
0.67
Goals for per game
2.18
55.6%
Scoring rate
82.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
47.1%
70
History Matches
69
0.97
Goals Mean
1.87
1.08
Goals Std
1.95
58.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
24.3%
Scored 2+ rate
42.0%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
27.5%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.69
Goals against per game
1.16
77.1%
Conceding rate
68.1%
1.62
Goals against per game
0.97
67.6%
Conceding rate
67.6%
1.94
Goals against per game
1.12
94.4%
Conceding rate
58.8%
70
History Matches
69
1.69
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.36
Conceded Std
1.10
48.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.4%
30.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.0%
1.62
Venue Conceded Mean
0.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
41.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
41.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
69
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.95
Goal Difference Std
2.23
5.83
Stability score
4.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
69
17
Lead Matches
27
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.85
22
Trailing Matches
14
9.1%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
75.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
45
Normal Rest History Matches
41
0.98
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
17
0.44
PPG
1.71
5.6%
Win rate
52.9%
27.8%
Draw rate
11.8%
66.7%
Loss rate
35.3%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
18
Current Competition Matches
17
0.44
Current Competition PPG
1.71
-1.28
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.06
6
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.81
Portability PPG Range
0.83
45.19
Portability Score
62.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-150.0
PPG-0.54
GF-0.90
GA0.53
PPG-1.26
PPG-0.47
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate16.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate11.8%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.90
Goals Std-0.87
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.94
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.53
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate18.1%
Conceded 3+ rate17.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score1.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.22
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.26
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.34
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.97
Portability Score-17.67
Rest days2.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match2.75
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.70
Current Team ELO-150.0
Current Opponent ELO150.0
Current ELO Difference-300.1
Expected score-0.41
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Halmstad

L
Sirius2–0Halmstad3 Nov · away
Pick: Sirius 66% · hit
L
Halmstad0–3Malmo FF28 Oct · home
Pick: Malmo FF 52% · hit
W
Vasteras SK FK1–2Halmstad23 Oct · away
Pick: Vasteras SK FK 59% · missed
L
Halmstad0–1Hammarby FF18 Oct · home
Pick: Hammarby FF 67% · hit
L
IF Elfsborg4–0Halmstad12 Oct · away
Pick: IF Elfsborg 62% · hit

Djurgardens IF

W
Djurgardens IF2–1Degerfors IF1 Nov · home
Pick: Djurgardens IF 64% · hit
D
IFK Goteborg1–1Djurgardens IF28 Oct · away
Pick: Djurgardens IF 43% · missed
D
Djurgardens IF2–2Orgryte IS24 Oct · home
Pick: Djurgardens IF 65% · missed
W
IF Brommapojkarna0–2Djurgardens IF16 Oct · away
Pick: Djurgardens IF 40% · hit
W
Djurgardens IF4–0Mjallby AIF31 Aug · home
Pick: Djurgardens IF 51% · hit

About this match

Halmstad and Djurgardens IF meet in Allsvenskan on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Orjans Vall, Halmstad. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Halmstad win 21.0%, draw 20.9%, Djurgardens IF win 58.1%. The pick is Djurgardens IF win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.5%. Both teams to score: 48.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.