ScoreProb
Allsvenskan Sweden Round 28 2026

IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF

IFK Goteborg Home · Elo 1,552
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Malmo FF Away · Elo 1,557
Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: IFK Goteborg win
IFK Goteborg winPick
37.3%
Draw
26.0%
Malmo FF win
36.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.2%
Under 2.541.8%

How much we know

IFK Goteborg history76 matches
Malmo FF history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why IFK Goteborg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,552 against 1,557. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.64 goals a game over 76 matches for IFK Goteborg, against 1.54 over 81 for Malmo FF.

  • Defences are close

    IFK Goteborg concede 1.37 a game, Malmo FF 1.26.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of IFK Goteborg matches, against 59% for Malmo FF. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
IFK Goteborg
Malmo FF
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1552.5
ELO
1556.7
76
ELO · Matches
81
1552.5
Current Team ELO
1556.7
1556.7
Current Opponent ELO
1552.5
-4.19
Current ELO Difference
4.19
0.49
Expected score
0.51
76
History Matches
81
0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
52.84
Overperformance
53.21
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
81
1.62
PPG
1.57
47.4%
Win rate
44.4%
19.7%
Draw rate
23.5%
32.9%
Loss rate
32.1%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
35.5%
Over 3.5 rate
35.8%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
38
1.56
PPG
1.58
46.2%
Win rate
44.7%
17.9%
Draw rate
23.7%
35.9%
Loss rate
31.6%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.3%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
39.5%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
39
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.64
Goals for per game
1.54
77.6%
Scoring rate
77.8%
51.3%
BTTS rate
50.6%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.47
82.1%
Scoring rate
78.9%
56.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.78
66.7%
Scoring rate
94.4%
61.1%
BTTS rate
66.7%
76
History Matches
81
1.64
Goals Mean
1.54
1.37
Goals Std
1.27
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
44.7%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
28.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.0%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.47
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.26
68.4%
Conceding rate
64.2%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.42
71.8%
Conceding rate
65.8%
2.17
Goals against per game
1.67
94.4%
Conceding rate
72.2%
76
History Matches
81
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.33
Conceded Std
1.25
39.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.3%
17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.0%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
5.6%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
81
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.96
Goal Difference Std
1.93
5.34
Stability score
3.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
81
25
Lead Matches
29
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.9%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.84
18
Trailing Matches
21
27.8%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
75.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.22
44
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
25
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
1.11
PPG
1.44
27.8%
Win rate
44.4%
27.8%
Draw rate
11.1%
44.4%
Loss rate
44.4%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
18
Current Competition Matches
18
1.11
Current Competition PPG
1.44
-0.89
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.11
9
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.53
1.60
Portability PPG Range
1.70
46.93
Portability Score
48.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-4.19
PPG0.05
GF0.10
GA0.11
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.01
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate0.1%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate0.3%
Scored 3+ rate8.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate1.2%
Conceded 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score2.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.29
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate8.1%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate13.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score-1.69
Rest days1.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Current Team ELO-4.19
Current Opponent ELO4.19
Current ELO Difference-8.37
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

IFK Goteborg

L
BK Hacken1–0IFK Goteborg1 Nov · away
Pick: BK Hacken 57% · hit
D
IFK Goteborg1–1Djurgardens IF28 Oct · home
Pick: Djurgardens IF 43% · missed
D
Gais1–1IFK Goteborg25 Oct · away
Pick: Gais 49% · missed
D
AIK Stockholm2–2IFK Goteborg17 Oct · away
Pick: AIK Stockholm 49% · missed
W
IFK Goteborg1–0Orgryte IS30 Aug · home
Pick: IFK Goteborg 53% · hit

Malmo FF

L
Malmo FF1–2Hammarby FF1 Nov · home
Pick: Hammarby FF 50% · hit
W
Halmstad0–3Malmo FF28 Oct · away
Pick: Malmo FF 52% · hit
D
IF Elfsborg0–0Malmo FF23 Oct · away
Pick: IF Elfsborg 45% · missed
L
Malmo FF0–1BK Hacken18 Oct · home
Pick: BK Hacken 38% · hit
W
Malmo FF1–0Kalmar FF12 Oct · home
Pick: Malmo FF 55% · hit

About this match

IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF meet in Allsvenskan on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: IFK Goteborg win 37.3%, draw 26.0%, Malmo FF win 36.7%. The pick is IFK Goteborg win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.2%. Both teams to score: 57.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.