ScoreProb
Allsvenskan Sweden Round 28 2026

Kalmar FF vs Sirius

Kalmar FF Home · Elo 1,582
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sirius Away · Elo 1,637
Guldfågeln Arena, Kalmar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sirius win
Kalmar FF win
31.0%
Draw
21.4%
Sirius winPick
47.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.3%
No40.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.5%
Under 2.538.5%

How much we know

Kalmar FF history68 matches
Sirius history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sirius are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sirius are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,637 against 1,582. On rating alone Sirius would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Sirius score more

    1.66 goals a game over 68 matches for Kalmar FF, against 2.06 over 67 for Sirius.

  • Kalmar FF concede fewer

    Kalmar FF concede 1.07 a game, Sirius 1.48.

  • Sirius games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Kalmar FF matches, against 75% for Sirius. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kalmar FF
Sirius
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1581.6
ELO
1637.5
68
ELO · Matches
67
1581.6
Current Team ELO
1637.5
1637.5
Current Opponent ELO
1581.6
-55.87
Current ELO Difference
55.87
0.42
Expected score
0.58
68
History Matches
67
0.05
Residual Mean
0.11
54.14
Overperformance
58.44
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.80
1.90
Goals for per game
2.40
1.30
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.97
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.84
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
67
1.71
PPG
1.75
48.5%
Win rate
52.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
17.9%
26.5%
Loss rate
29.9%
77.9%
Over 1.5 rate
91.0%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
74.6%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
41.8%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
31
2.13
PPG
1.65
65.6%
Win rate
48.4%
15.6%
Draw rate
19.4%
18.8%
Loss rate
32.3%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
93.5%
59.4%
Over 2.5 rate
77.4%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
32
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.66
Goals for per game
2.06
73.5%
Scoring rate
88.1%
44.1%
BTTS rate
70.1%
1.88
Goals for per game
2.03
90.6%
Scoring rate
96.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
77.4%
1.17
Goals for per game
2.61
61.1%
Scoring rate
94.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
68
History Matches
67
1.66
Goals Mean
2.06
1.42
Goals Std
1.33
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
88.1%
57.4%
Scored 2+ rate
65.7%
19.1%
Scored 3+ rate
32.8%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
2.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.48
57.4%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.68
56.3%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.44
83.3%
Conceding rate
72.2%
68
History Matches
67
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.14
Conceded Std
1.32
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.8%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
11.9%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
9.4%
Failed-to-score rate
3.2%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
5.6%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
11.9%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
9.4%
Failed-to-score rate
3.2%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
67
0.96
Result entropy
0.92
1.96
Goal Difference Std
1.99
4.49
Stability score
8.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
67
22
Lead Matches
34
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.79
17
Trailing Matches
9
23.5%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
1.01
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.04
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.15
Rest days
78.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
40
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
26
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.46
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
1.06
PPG
2.33
27.8%
Win rate
72.2%
22.2%
Draw rate
16.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
11.1%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
18
Current Competition Matches
18
1.06
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-0.39
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.17
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.13
Portability PPG Range
1.03
53.72
Portability Score
55.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-55.87
PPG-0.04
GF-0.40
GA-0.40
PPG-1.28
PPG0.48
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate23.2%
Failed-to-score rate14.5%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate24.4%
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.77
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate23.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches1
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-3.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.04
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate5.3%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate6.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.48
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.28
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.56
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score-1.99
Rest days-1.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Current Team ELO-55.87
Current Opponent ELO55.87
Current ELO Difference-111.7
Expected score-0.16
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kalmar FF

D
Mjallby AIF0–0Kalmar FF2 Nov · away
Pick: Mjallby AIF 58% · missed
L
Kalmar FF0–1Gais29 Oct · home
Pick: Gais 40% · hit
L
Kalmar FF0–3IF Brommapojkarna24 Oct · home
Pick: Kalmar FF 40% · missed
W
Degerfors IF1–2Kalmar FF19 Oct · away
Pick: Degerfors IF 38% · missed
L
Malmo FF1–0Kalmar FF12 Oct · away
Pick: Malmo FF 55% · hit

Sirius

W
Sirius2–0Halmstad3 Nov · home
Pick: Sirius 66% · hit
L
Hammarby FF2–0Sirius29 Oct · away
Pick: Hammarby FF 56% · hit
L
Sirius1–2AIK Stockholm24 Oct · home
Pick: Sirius 56% · missed
D
Sirius2–2IF Elfsborg18 Oct · home
Pick: Sirius 56% · missed
L
Sirius0–1Malmo FF31 Aug · home
Pick: Sirius 54% · missed

About this match

Kalmar FF and Sirius meet in Allsvenskan on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Guldfågeln Arena, Kalmar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Kalmar FF win 31.0%, draw 21.4%, Sirius win 47.6%. The pick is Sirius win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.5%. Both teams to score: 59.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.