ScoreProb
Liga Alef Israel South - 10 2026

Hapoel Hadera vs Hapoel Sderot

Hapoel Hadera Home · Elo 1,411
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hapoel Sderot Away · Elo 1,504
Netanya Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hapoel Hadera win
Hapoel Hadera winPick
55.4%
Draw
19.1%
Hapoel Sderot win
25.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%

How much we know

Hapoel Hadera history51 matches
Hapoel Sderot history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Hapoel Hadera are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hapoel Sderot are rated 93 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,504 against 1,411. On rating alone Hapoel Sderot would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Hapoel Sderot score far more

    1.08 goals a game over 51 matches for Hapoel Hadera, against 1.67 over 3 for Hapoel Sderot.

  • Defences are close

    Hapoel Hadera concede 1.71 a game, Hapoel Sderot 1.67.

  • Hapoel Sderot games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Hapoel Hadera matches, against 100% for Hapoel Sderot. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hapoel Hadera
Hapoel Sderot
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1411.0
ELO
1503.5
51
ELO · Matches
3
1411.0
Current Team ELO
1503.5
1503.5
Current Opponent ELO
1411.0
-92.53
Current ELO Difference
92.53
0.37
Expected score
0.63
51
History Matches
3
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.03
43.51
Overperformance
50.42
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
1.20
PPG
1.33
1.20
Goals for per game
1.67
2.00
Goals against per game
1.67
20.0%
Win rate
33.3%
10
Matches
3
0.90
PPG
1.33
1.10
Goals for per game
1.67
2.20
Goals against per game
1.67
20.0%
Win rate
33.3%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.67
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.47
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.67
1.72
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.47
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
1.00
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.82
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
3
0.90
PPG
1.33
19.6%
Win rate
33.3%
31.4%
Draw rate
33.3%
49.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
72.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
51.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
2
0.71
PPG
0.50
12.5%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
54.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
24
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.08
Goals for per game
1.67
70.6%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.8%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.04
Goals for per game
1.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
58.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
51
History Matches
3
1.08
Goals Mean
1.67
0.90
Goals Std
0.47
70.6%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
29.4%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
7.8%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.71
Goals against per game
1.67
82.4%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.75
Goals against per game
2.00
83.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
51
History Matches
3
1.71
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.30
Conceded Std
0.47
51.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
23.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.75
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
3
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.40
Goal Difference Std
0.82
6.01
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
3
12
Lead Matches
1
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.61
Lead Points Retention
0.33
16
Trailing Matches
2
25.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
50.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
165.9
Rest days
314.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
33
Normal Rest History Matches
0
0.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
15
Long Rest History Matches
2
0.87
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.07
Portability PPG Std
—
0.14
Portability PPG Range
—
87.80
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-92.53
PPG-0.43
GF-0.59
GA0.04
PPG0.21
PPG-0.13
PPG-0.43
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches48
Clean-sheet rate17.6%
Failed-to-score rate29.4%
History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate33.3%
History Matches48
Goals Mean-0.59
Goals Std0.43
Scored 1+ rate-0.29
Scored 2+ rate-0.37
Scored 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Goals Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Goals Std0.47
History Matches48
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.83
Clean-sheet rate17.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate23.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.25
History Matches48
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.58
Stability score6.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.00
Eligible Matches48
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.44
Halftime Coverage Matches48
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-148.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches33
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match0.37
Current Team ELO-92.53
Current Opponent ELO92.53
Current ELO Difference-185.1
Expected score-0.26
History Matches48
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-6.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hapoel Hadera

L
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda3–2Hapoel Hadera30 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
W
Tzeirey Tira0–1Hapoel Hadera19 Oct · away
Pick: Tzeirey Tira 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hapoel Sderot

L
Hapoel Sderot2–3Maccabi Ahi Nazareth26 Oct · home
Pick: Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 54% · hit
D
Hapoel Sderot2–2Hapoel Herzliya19 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Sderot 35% · missed
W
Hapoel Rahat1–4Hapoel Sderot12 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Rahat 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hapoel Hadera and Hapoel Sderot meet in Liga Alef on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Netanya Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hapoel Hadera win 55.4%, draw 19.1%, Hapoel Sderot win 25.5%. The pick is Hapoel Hadera win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.