ScoreProb
Liga Alef Israel North - 10 2026

Hapoel Ironi Arraba vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Hapoel Ironi Arraba Home · Elo 1,489
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Away · Elo 1,449
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win
Hapoel Ironi Arraba win
32.3%
Draw
22.3%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm winPick
45.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.7%
No47.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

Hapoel Ironi Arraba history15 matches
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hapoel Umm al-Fahm are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hapoel Ironi Arraba are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,489 against 1,449. On rating alone Hapoel Ironi Arraba would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Hapoel Umm al-Fahm score more

    1.07 goals a game over 15 matches for Hapoel Ironi Arraba, against 1.23 over 39 for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm.

  • Hapoel Ironi Arraba concede fewer

    Hapoel Ironi Arraba concede 1.40 a game, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1.64.

  • Hapoel Ironi Arraba games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Hapoel Ironi Arraba matches, against 51% for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 27 Feb 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hapoel Ironi Arraba
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.7
ELO
1448.6
15
ELO · Matches
39
1488.7
Current Team ELO
1448.6
1448.6
Current Opponent ELO
1488.7
40.08
Current ELO Difference
-40.08
0.56
Expected score
0.44
15
History Matches
39
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
48.64
Overperformance
45.90
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.10
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
15
Matches
39
1.27
PPG
1.05
33.3%
Win rate
28.2%
26.7%
Draw rate
20.5%
40.0%
Loss rate
51.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
51.3%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
19
1.38
PPG
0.68
37.5%
Win rate
15.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
21.1%
37.5%
Loss rate
63.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
47.4%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
8
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.07
Goals for per game
1.23
60.0%
Scoring rate
59.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
43.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.11
75.0%
Scoring rate
52.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
47.4%
15
History Matches
39
1.07
Goals Mean
1.23
1.06
Goals Std
1.46
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
59.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
35.9%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.40
Goals against per game
1.64
66.7%
Conceding rate
74.4%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.95
75.0%
Conceding rate
84.2%
15
History Matches
39
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.64
1.20
Conceded Std
1.35
46.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.8%
26.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.1%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
15
History Matches
39
0.99
Result entropy
0.93
1.78
Goal Difference Std
2.01
1.22
Stability score
6.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
15
Eligible Matches
38
4
Lead Matches
7
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.67
4
Trailing Matches
15
0.0%
Non-loss rate
6.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
15
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
253.2
Rest days
253.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
6
Normal Rest History Matches
22
0.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
7
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.49
0.92
Portability PPG Range
1.06
52.17
Portability Score
50.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
15
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO40.08
PPG0.22
GF-0.16
GA-0.24
PPG0.69
PPG-0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-24
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate1.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches-24
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate3.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches-24
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-5.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.48
Eligible Matches-23
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate17.9%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-23
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.15
Portability Score1.51
Rest days-0.65
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO40.08
Current Opponent ELO-40.08
Current ELO Difference80.17
Expected score0.11
History Matches-24
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hapoel Ironi Arraba

W
Hapoel Bnei Musmus1–2Hapoel Ironi Arraba19 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Bnei Musmus 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

W
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm3–0Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed2 Nov · home
Pick: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 53% · hit
W
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm3–2FC Shefa-Amr13 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hapoel Ironi Arraba and Hapoel Umm al-Fahm meet in Liga Alef on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hapoel Ironi Arraba win 32.3%, draw 22.3%, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win 45.4%. The pick is Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 52.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.