ScoreProb
First Amateur Division Belgium VV - 11 2026

Harelbeke vs Zelzate

Harelbeke Home · Elo 1,534
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zelzate Away · Elo 1,451
Forestierstadion, Harelbeke Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Harelbeke win
Harelbeke winPick
45.0%
Draw
23.1%
Zelzate win
31.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.2%
No38.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.5%
Under 2.531.5%

How much we know

Harelbeke history47 matches
Zelzate history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Harelbeke are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Harelbeke are rated 83 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,534 against 1,451. On rating alone Harelbeke would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.72 goals a game over 47 matches for Harelbeke, against 1.80 over 49 for Zelzate.

  • Harelbeke concede fewer

    Harelbeke concede 1.40 a game, Zelzate 1.78.

  • Zelzate games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Harelbeke matches, against 76% for Zelzate. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Harelbeke
Zelzate
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1534.2
ELO
1451.4
47
ELO · Matches
49
1534.2
Current Team ELO
1451.4
1451.4
Current Opponent ELO
1534.2
82.85
Current ELO Difference
-82.85
0.62
Expected score
0.38
47
History Matches
49
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.03
52.44
Overperformance
47.65
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.38
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.00
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
2.80
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
49
1.40
PPG
1.33
34.0%
Win rate
36.7%
38.3%
Draw rate
22.4%
27.7%
Loss rate
40.8%
80.9%
Over 1.5 rate
89.8%
55.3%
Over 2.5 rate
75.5%
44.7%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
20
1.39
PPG
1.55
34.8%
Win rate
45.0%
34.8%
Draw rate
20.0%
30.4%
Loss rate
35.0%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
85.0%
52.2%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
23
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.72
Goals for per game
1.80
80.9%
Scoring rate
77.6%
70.2%
BTTS rate
67.3%
1.83
Goals for per game
2.15
95.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
82.6%
BTTS rate
70.0%
47
History Matches
49
1.72
Goals Mean
1.80
1.38
Goals Std
1.55
80.9%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
48.9%
Scored 2+ rate
55.1%
23.4%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
2.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.40
Goals against per game
1.78
80.9%
Conceding rate
81.6%
1.65
Goals against per game
1.75
87.0%
Conceding rate
85.0%
47
History Matches
49
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.78
1.02
Conceded Std
1.20
38.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
59.2%
21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.6%
1.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
19.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
4.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
19.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
4.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.87
0.79
Stability score
2.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
40
10
Lead Matches
13
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.59
7
Trailing Matches
15
42.9%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
91.88
Rest days
92.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
23
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.75
0.04
Portability PPG Range
2.00
96.08
Portability Score
40.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO82.85
PPG0.08
GF-0.07
GA-0.37
PPG-0.16
PPG1.80
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate3.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.27
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-1.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.18
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate16.2%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate16.2%
Trailing Win Rate7.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.73
Portability PPG Range-1.96
Portability Score56.07
Rest days-0.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO82.85
Current Opponent ELO-82.85
Current ELO Difference165.7
Expected score0.23
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.79
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.58

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Harelbeke

W
Knokke0–2Harelbeke31 Oct · away
Pick: Knokke 43% · missed
L
Harelbeke0–3Lyra-Lierse Berlaar25 Oct · home
Pick: Harelbeke 50% · missed
L
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II4–1Harelbeke18 Oct · away
Pick: Harelbeke 41% · missed
L
Harelbeke0–3Mandel United30 Aug · home
Pick: Harelbeke 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Zelzate

W
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar1–2Zelzate31 Oct · away
Pick: Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 41% · missed
L
Zelzate1–5Heist24 Oct · home
Pick: Heist 47% · hit
L
Mandel United3–1Zelzate17 Oct · away
Pick: Mandel United 47% · hit
D
Cercle Brugge II1–1Zelzate30 Aug · away
Pick: Zelzate 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Harelbeke and Zelzate meet in First Amateur Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Forestierstadion, Harelbeke. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Harelbeke win 45.0%, draw 23.1%, Zelzate win 31.8%. The pick is Harelbeke win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.5%. Both teams to score: 61.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.